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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,414.14 1,114.05 2,237.66 36.82
Oil *
72.73
UP
85.25
UP
11.58
UP
25.97
UP
1.36
10 Yr
3.68%
SPDR Gold
106.95
+0.83%
+1.05%
+1.17%
+3.84%
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Commentary: Perceptions and Reality
*New* Alerts! Please click here...

Sniffing Out Bad Stocks
By Doug Kass
Special to TheStreet.com

4/2/01 1:14 PM ET


During the bull market of the 1990s, research on Wall Street lost much of its integrity, and, increasingly, most of its value in helping individual and institutional investors make sensible investment decisions.

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Consider that fewer than 1% of all Wall Street research reports are outright sell recommendations. This is a particularly astonishing figure given that nearly 85% of the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange are down, year to date. It says to me that analysts are simply not doing a good job, or are not acting independently.

Indeed, Wall Street research has deteriorated to the point that its analytical output has been rendered almost useless.

To be sure, there are excellent analysts at many brokerage firms. But, unfortunately, they are few and far between. Independent analysis has become nearly nonexistent, replaced instead by hidden agendas (analysts indentured to investment banking clients) and research that is neither thorough nor detailed. Instead of acting as analysts, analysts have been reduced to stenographers and cheerleaders.

Even with stocks so depressed, it is ever important to pay attention to possible indicators of trouble. So, how can the individual investor be on the watch for troubled companies that are candidates for sale or shorting?

Here's a list of 11 early warning signs that often serve as Indicators of Trouble:

  1. Management that complains about short-sellers, and appears to be more interested in stock price than the company's fundamental business.

  2. Competitors that are having problems or are exiting the business.

  3. High turnover of key managers.

  4. Increasing days of inventory on hand. Increasing days of receivables.

  5. A company that is having a light quarter but is blaming it on the weather ("orders are slipping into the next quarter").

  6. Companies that are late in reporting and that withhold vital information.

  7. Companies that do not return analysts' phone calls -- especially when they were previously outgoing.

  8. A company that has missed its estimates, or where the bull story is not playing out, yet the Street hasn't given up on the stock. Instead, the bullish analysts make excuses.

  9. A company that has previously been a growth story, but sales have flattened out.

  10. On a different note, watch it if the company is controlled by Ron Perelman, or ...

  11. If senior management wears more jewelry than your mother, wife or girlfriend!

For those investors with larger portfolios who have the resources but not the time to do their own analysis, there are a number of valuable services that provide independent research away from Wall Street. These services specialize in finding companies/industries to avoid or to sell short.

I have used all three of the following sources as an adjunct to my research. I know the principals. All employ logic of argument and power of analytical dissection. While each has different skills, their research is impartial and their facts are thoroughly researched. The services can be relatively expensive -- but you get what you pay for.

For those who can't subscribe to these services, look for their names on RealMoney.com where they are periodically quoted by my colleagues.

  • Off Wall Street: This Cambridge, Mass.-based research effort is headed by an old friend of mine, Marc Roberts. Marc's team is constantly in touch with competitors and suppliers, and is especially good at detecting changes in a company's or industry's competitive landscape. I will never forget Off Wall Street's short recommendation of Ventro (VNTR:Nasdaq - news - boards) about two years ago. Ventro's common shares fell from $250 to less than $1 during the past 18 months. This product is superb in uncovering fleeting fads and developing demand/supply imbalances.

  • Behind the Numbers: David Tice runs this Dallas-based research boutique, and he doubles as the portfolio manager of The Prudent Bear Fund. David made a splash about six months ago when he wrote a detailed report critical of Tyco International's (TYC:NYSE - news - boards) accounting problems. This product excels in tearing apart balance sheets and income statements.

  • Center for Financial Research and Analysis: Howard Schilit operates this service, which is based in Rockville, Md. Howard is a former accounting professor at American University and publishes a monthly product, which, like David Tice's, highlights accounting issues. Howard's accounting background ideally suits today's market where companies are expected (forced?) to meet Wall Street's quarterly expectations.

    Doug Kass is the manager of two hedge funds, Seabreeze Partners and Kass Partners, and renowned for his emphasis on a short-selling strategy. Prior to that, he was a portfolio manager at hedge fund Omega Advisors, and head of institutional equities at First Albany and J.W. Charles. At time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Kass appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to Doug Kass.
    Send letters to the editor to letters@realmoney.com.
    Read our conflicts and disclosure policy.
    Order reprints of RealMoney.com articles. Top

    RELATED STORIES


    Perceptions and Reality
    A Longtime Bear Turns Bull
    3/26/01 7:57 AM ET
    Ever the contrarian, veteran short-seller Doug Kass inhales the raging pessimism around him and sniffs opportunity.




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    Sorry, the page you requested could not be found

    Sorry that you couldn't find the page you wanted.

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    Content Search:

    Quote Search:

    (Stocks, ETFs, Mutual Funds)

    TheStreet Directory

    Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
    10,414.14 1,114.05 2,237.66 36.82
    Oil *
    72.73
    UP
    85.25
    UP
    11.58
    UP
    25.97
    UP
    1.36
    10 Yr
    3.68%
    SPDR Gold
    106.95
    +0.83%
    +1.05%
    +1.17%
    +3.84%
    Data delayed 20 minutes

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    Latest Headlines