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Commentary: Perceptions and Reality *New* Alerts! Please click here...
During the bull market of the 1990s, research on Wall Street lost much of its integrity, and, increasingly, most of its value in helping individual and institutional investors make sensible investment decisions.
Indeed, Wall Street research has deteriorated to the point that its analytical output has been rendered almost useless. To be sure, there are excellent analysts at many brokerage firms. But, unfortunately, they are few and far between. Independent analysis has become nearly nonexistent, replaced instead by hidden agendas (analysts indentured to investment banking clients) and research that is neither thorough nor detailed. Instead of acting as analysts, analysts have been reduced to stenographers and cheerleaders. Even with stocks so depressed, it is ever important to pay attention to possible indicators of trouble. So, how can the individual investor be on the watch for troubled companies that are candidates for sale or shorting? Here's a list of 11 early warning signs that often serve as Indicators of Trouble:
For those investors with larger portfolios who have the resources but not the time to do their own analysis, there are a number of valuable services that provide independent research away from Wall Street. These services specialize in finding companies/industries to avoid or to sell short. I have used all three of the following sources as an adjunct to my research. I know the principals. All employ logic of argument and power of analytical dissection. While each has different skills, their research is impartial and their facts are thoroughly researched. The services can be relatively expensive -- but you get what you pay for. For those who can't subscribe to these services, look for their names on RealMoney.com where they are periodically quoted by my colleagues.
Doug Kass is the manager of two hedge funds, Seabreeze Partners and Kass Partners, and renowned for his emphasis on a short-selling strategy. Prior to that, he was a portfolio manager at hedge fund Omega Advisors, and head of institutional equities at First Albany and J.W. Charles. At time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Kass appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to Doug Kass.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,414.14 | 1,114.05 | 2,237.66 | 36.82 |
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