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Commentary: The Over-Under *New* Alerts! Please click here...
Proponents of the "worst may be over" side are banking on the following few factors. First and foremost is the old refrain that one should not fight the Fed. With the Fed easing rates, things are bound to get better. The bear's take on the situation is that the Fed is too late to do anything about the market in the near term. Greenspan himself admitted that given the advancement in technology and the speed of information dissemination he is not sure how long the effect of a tax cut or tax hike takes to work its way into the economy. Will these cuts have an effect? Absolument, mon ami. However, it is the amount of time that the hikes take to work their way into the economy that is crucial. The second point that the bulls like to point out is the fact that the Nazz is now, or should I say was, at a 27-month low two days ago and things are bound to look better going forward. The bears warn not to let this false sense of security lull you. Who would have thought Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news - boards) would be at 16 and change, or an InfoSpace (INSP:Nasdaq - news - boards) at three and change? Their argument is that the market can go lower, and if the bad news from the bellwethers does not change rapidly into good news, it is almost a certainty that it will go lower. Another argument that the bears are making is the problems in the U.S. are now being felt all over the world. Not just in the foreign stock markets, but also in their economies. Another common argument among the bulls is that if an investor takes a long-term approach to investing, these stocks are extremely attractive. The bears argue that even at Nazz 2000 and change, most tech stocks remain very expensive. The bulls point that there are a lot more positive preannouncements this quarter vs. the last one, pointing to the fact that the economy is indeed on the path to recovery. The bears argue that as long as the bellwethers like Cisco, Intel, Lucent and Motorola continue with their negative and gloomy announcements, the chances for a full-blown recovery are slim to none. So, where do I stand? I am neutral, I am Switzerland. It really makes very little difference to me where the Nazz ends up. The primary reason that I have no earthly idea where the market is going to go in the short run. I am playing strictly for the singles here, either on the short side or the long side and at times, even, both. This is not the time to try to hit the ball out of the park. Will the time come where you want to be long and strong? Most definitely so. However, at present it's guerilla warfare time, where hit-and-run tactics work best. It's a traders market in tech land and till investors wise up to that, we will continue to go through this painful, one step forward, two steps back process. Unlike you, perhaps, my mandate is to play in tech land -- and that's how I am playing it at the moment since I have no reason at the moment to be committed to either side. P.S. Are we there yet? Jay M. Somaney is the portfolio manager of the TSG Tech Fund, a hedge fund focused on the shares of companies involved in the Internet and related technology. At the time of publication, neither Somaney nor the TSG Tech Fund held positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Somaney appreciates your feedback and invites you to send any to rheas1@msn.com.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,388.90 | 1,105.98 | 2,194.35 | 34.83 |
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