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Commentary: Herb on TheStreet
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Report Card Time: Passes, Failures and Incompletes
By Herb Greenberg
Senior Columnist

12/26/00 6:30 AM ET


For those keeping score, the past six months have been the best for this column, and it should really be no surprise: So many of the games that kept stocks elevated, even as their fundamentals were deteriorating, are over. So much for the game of analysts helping out institutional clients by chatting up stocks that really should be chatted down. So much for the game of indiscriminate buying by mutual funds for no other reason than the money has to go somewhere. So much for "risk" being a four-letter word.

Reality has returned to the stock market; stocks that in the old days would take a year or two to unwind despite flaws, are now being forced to fess up almost overnight, thanks to the confluence of several events: a sharply slowing economy, the implementation of Reg FD and the strained balance sheets of many companies that relied on easy access to cash from banks, the bond market and the stock market. The quality of earnings has suddenly become as important as the quantity of earnings. (If you ask me, a lot of companies are using this horrible environment to wipe the slate clean and take hits they should have taken long ago.)

All of which is important to keep in mind as you read my semiannual report card; it's why -- rather than passes, failures and incompletes being fairly equal, which is usually the case -- the number of passes exceeds both failures and incompletes. This, too, will change, and I urge you to keep that in mind when you read future columns. Avoid the trap of thinking, "This guy is almost never wrong," because this guy's sources are, at times, wrong and/or early. Use this column as a springboard for further research. While the old games are over, mark my words, new games will surely begin.

On that note the report card:

Passes: Head of the class this time to longtime source Marc Cohodes of Rocker Partners, one of the few short-sellers willing to go on the record. He has received failing marks here in the past, but this time he gets honors A's for his tenacity with Lernout & Hauspie (LHSPQ:OTC BB - news - boards) and his timely call on the impact of competitive pressures on JNI Communications (JNIC:Nasdaq - news - boards).

Also receiving honors A's: Bill Fleckenstein of Fleckenstein Capital Management and Fred Hickey of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter for their numerous questions on the quality of Intel's (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) earnings [and prior questions on Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - boards)] ... And longtime source Jeff Matthews of Ram Partners goes to the head of the class with his calls on Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq - news - boards) no longer being a growth stock and the slowdown in cellular demand ....

Along those lines, also winning top honors are Fechtor Detwiler analysts Jim Coleman, Fred Ramberg and Joe Valenzuela for their frequent and insightful (and correct ) calls on the technology distribution channel before everybody else figured out what was going on. Analyst Tom Courtney of Banc of America Securities made the dean's list with his prescient call here on troubles at priceline.com (PCLN:Nasdaq - news - boards).

This column also gets A's for its various heads-ups on a slowdown at Home Depot (HD:NYSE - news - boards), the trouble at Lucent (LU:NYSE - news - boards), glitches at Act Manufacturing (ACTM:Nasdaq - news - boards) and uncertainty over approval for Cell Pathways' (CLPA:Nasdaq - news - boards) key drug.

Other dean's list calls include questions about the quality of earnings at Copper Mountain (CMTN:Nasdaq - news - boards), the viability of Scient's (SCNT:Nasdaq - news - boards) business strategy and the unlikelihood that Teligent (TGNT:Nasdaq - news - boards) would raise cash at an attractive price.

Failures: F's to this column for thinking that troubled Bradlees (BRAD:Nasdaq - news - boards) would get bought out by a retailer looking for cheap real estate; looks like it will now liquidate. Also, I should stand in the corner wearing a dunce cap for writing something positive about Read-Rite (RDRT:Nasdaq - news - boards) recently. (Really, I should've known better; that may have been the last time this column points out companies whose fundamentals might be improving!)

Finally, on the incompletes: Even though they've fallen, the story still isn't over, one way or the other, for Cree (CREE:Nasdaq - news - boards) (on which I gave myself failing marks in my last report card, but it's back!), Pre-Paid Legal (PPD:NYSE - news - boards), Manugistics (MANU:Nasdaq - news - boards), QLogic (QLGC:Nasdaq - news - boards), CVS (CVS:NYSE - news - boards), ArthroCare (ARTC:Nasdaq - news - boards), Open Text (OTEX:Nasdaq - news - boards) and (for Bob Olstein of the Olstein Financial Alert fund), J.C. Penney (JCP:NYSE - news - boards).

I'm sure there's a bunch I've missed here; if so, remind me with an email! In the meantime, I'd like to thank my sidekick Brian Harris and my editor, Charlotte-Anne Lucas, for making me look better (on my good days) than I really am -- and for putting up with me! And for the rest of you: Thanks for stopping by every day. I'm taking the rest of the week off. I hope you're having a fabulous holiday, and from my family to yours: a healthy and prosperous New Year!


Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback and invites you to send any to Herb Greenberg. Greenberg also writes a monthly column for Fortune.

Brian Harris assisted with the reporting of this column.


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