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Commentary: Herb on TheStreet
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Taking a Closer Look at the Honey Well
By Herb Greenberg
Senior Columnist

9/11/00 6:30 AM ET


An item in one of last week's Hotlines questioned whether a key "tell" toward a possible preannouncement from Honeywell (HON:NYSE - news - boards) was an earnings warning from Invensys, a British controls and automation company. Invensys is a Honeywell competitor, and Honeywell fans had been looking at the company's controls group for signs of strength this quarter. Got a bunch of angry email, in response, telling me I must be a kook (or actually, something much worse ) because just a few weeks ago Honeywell said it was comfortable with earnings estimates of 76 cents per share, which would be a pleasant 10% gain.

True, but this is, after all, the same Honeywell that in June gave expectations of one thing for second-quarter revenues, only to amend that a few weeks later with a lower number. And this is, after all, the same Honeywell that several quarters ago said it would take no more big charges, and then turned around and took a whole bunch of new charges.

Will the same thing happen this time round? Hard to say, and as of Friday all a Honeywell spokesman would say to me was: "We're sticking with our guidance." On earnings, that is. Interestingly (and subtly) Honeywell didn't say anything about revenues in its recent update, and the spokesman said there will be no revenue guidance now, either. Stung once, too smart to be stung twice, I guess.

But that also highlights that Honeywell has entered the quarter with negative revenue momentum, which is not what Wall Street wants to see. Earnings can meet estimates lots of different ways (an item here back in March showed how half of Honeywell's 20% earnings gain came from pension income) but revenue represents business in the raw.

So, why worry now? According to one longtime Honeywell watcher, who prefers to go incognito (so he can protect his relationship with the company, in which he still holds a small stake), events that could further effect this quarter's earnings and revenues include the sharp rise in oil prices -- the same rise in oil prices that last week helped clobber DuPont (DD:NYSE - news - boards), which warned of lower earnings (thanks, in part, to oil). Honeywell also disclosed that problems with brakes it makes for buses will shave 2 cents per share off earnings. The warning came after the earnings reassurance a couple of weeks ago, but was included in the recent forecast. It's unclear, however, how the problems will affect brake sales (and therefore revenues), going forward. Oh, and Honeywell is laying off 5% of its workforce. (A supposed growth company firing people?!) Then there are more charges, lots of charges -- but the 76 cent per share number excludes them.

What's more, analysts are just starting to take a close look at the company now that they're back from summer vacation. At least one analyst who has tried to get some sign of how things are going was told the company hasn't seen the August numbers yet, which means there still could be reasons for concern.

All of that said, Honeywell has been doing loads to improve itself, but our longtime Honeywell watcher, who is looking for the right time to hop back in, doesn't think there'll be signs of a solid rebound until next summer. At the earliest.

Short Positions

  • From reader John Lee: "How's this for an inflation indicator? Down here in our cafeteria today we were confronted by a sign that indicated the cafeteria was raising prices "to cover rising food and labor costs..." But inflation is nearly nonexistent, right? Right (he said, sarcastically). Wouldn't be surprised to see a few fast-food chains that missed earnings last quarter, because of rising costs, bite the bullet and raise prices, too. (A dime or a quarter isn't going to drive customers away; but a dime here at one place and a quarter there at another would certainly lead to higher prices across the board. Or so you'd think!)

  • Stupid poll?!: That's what some folks thought of Friday's poll which asked whether you should pay more attention to a company, friendly analysts or unfriendly analysts. (Unfriendly won by a landslide.) Several readers, however, wish I'd had a fourth alternative: All of the above. Says reader Bridget Magnus: "I think that if a person is going to make a realistic, informed decision about a company it is a good idea to listen to all three of those sources (the company, friendly analysts, and unfriendly analysts). Putting them together will give a potential investor a much clearer picture of what is (or isn't) going on." Great point! Which brings us to today's poll:
    Are message boards a waste of time?
    Yes
    No

    See Results

    Feel free to send emails to my sidekick Mark Martinez with any reason why you think the way you do. Cramer has pretty strong opinions about this. And speaking of JJC, don't forget that he and I will be going head-to-head at RealMoney.com's "Cramer Live" conference in San Francisco later this month. Click here for more info.

  • Bye, George: Marketing columnist George Lazarus of The Chicago Tribune died Friday while commuting on the train to work. He was 68 and he still wrote a daily column. He was a former colleague and I'd like to think, a friend, whom I didn't keep in touch with nearly enough. George wrote the textbook on how to be a hard-working, daily, news-oriented columnist. You could see just how hard he worked when he walked through the office at the end of every day, looking exhausted, as he handed the finished copy into his editor. His salutation to me, when he saw me was always, "Hey, scoop." Coming from the scoop, that was an honor. Hey, George. -30-

    Herb Greenberg writes daily for TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback and invites you to send any to Herb Greenberg. Greenberg also writes a monthly column for Fortune.

    Mark Martinez assisted with the reporting of this column.


    Send letters to the editor to letters@realmoney.com.
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    TheStreet Directory

    Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
    10,291.26 1,098.51 2,166.90 34.74
    Oil *
    77.90
    UP
    44.29
    UP
    5.50
    UP
    15.82
    DOWN
    0.08
    10 Yr
    3.47%
    SPDR Gold
    109.60
    +0.43%
    +0.50%
    +0.74%
    -0.23%
    Data delayed 20 minutes