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Commentary: Bob Gabele *New* Alerts! Please click here...
For those of you who've been waiting, the June restricted stock sales numbers are in. What's the prognosis? Strangely, well into the month -- in fact, right up until the final week -- I would have said that things were looking up, because up to that time insider selling had been rather subdued. A convincing late-month surge has clouded the picture, however. All told, corporate insiders and other holders of unregistered shares filed their intentions to sell (via an SEC Form 144) more than $12 billion worth of stock in June. As you may recall, total insider selling peaked at more than $20 billion in February, and hung just a bit lower in March, before falling off to $6 billion in April. On the one hand, there have been fundamental changes in the market that have bolstered these numbers, most notably, the past few years' burgeoning IPO market. On the other hand, there is no denying that restricted stock sales represent new supply on the market, not to mention a drain on market liquidity. For this reason, I was less than overjoyed to see the number creep back to $10 billion in May. I'm even less so now. True, we're nowhere near February's peak of $22 billion, but with June totals back up to $12 billion, restricted stock sales once more bear watching.
At the same time, the list of companies where insiders are willing to part with shares at fractions of their recent highs continues to grow. Some of these situations are surprisingly difficult reads: Despite some truly frightening second-quarter nose dives, many of these stocks remain well up for the past 24- or even 12-month periods. Because of that, one can almost rationalize the insiders' desire to lock in what remains of their paper profits. At the same time, it is worrisome to see them sell at a fraction of some recent prices. Whatever your take, it seems that investors in these companies, be they die-hard loyalists or opportunistic bargain hunters, should at least be aware that insiders are selling at what some might view as bargain-basement prices.
You'll notice a pair of biotechs - Genzyme Transgenics (GZTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) and CuraGen (CRGN:Nasdaq - news - boards) -- made the short list. By this, I don't mean to imply that biotech insiders are selling across the board. In fact, in many cases, insiders are sitting tight, despite the harrowing ride. More than anything, their representation here is an upshot of the manic run-up and subsequent depression that afflicted nearly the entire sector. Less easily dismissed is the absence of telecom names on the list. Not only have we seen a decided lack of insider selling at the beaten-up, smaller telecom service providers, but an accumulation trend appears to be developing in the group as well. Perhaps the most intriguing of these are ITC DeltaCom (ITCD:Nasdaq - news - boards), where insiders stepped in to acquire more than 90,000 shares after the stock broke in March, and CenturyTel (CTL:NYSE - news - boards) where insiders acquired more than 85,000 shares near the bottom in May. Because telecom insiders tend to hold a lot of options, their accumulation will tend to be subtle. All the more reason to watch the group closely as the summer wears on. Bob Gabele has been tracking and analyzing insider trading since 1978, most recently for First Call/Thomson Financial. This column is not meant as investment advice; it is instead meant to provide insight into the methods of insider trading. At time of publication, Gabele held no position in any of the companies discussed in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Gabele appreciates your feedback at rgabele@thestreet.com.
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