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Commentary: Editor's Letter *New* Alerts! Please click here...
We've had a brutal time of it this year. The Nasdaq, the go-go king of 1999 and early 2000, is ailing. Talk of recession looms heavy in the air, and the doom-and-gloomers have started barking "I told you so."
But Tuesday's sharp gains have stirred at least a few bullish thoughts, even if we gave a little bit back on Wednesday. The question is: Are we at a long-awaited inflection point, a return to a bull market, or are we merely getting a short burst of optimism before we realize the Grinch is in full control of this holiday season? These days there's no shortage of people making the bear case. So, rather than bore you with the familiar, let's try and craft the bull case without apology and see where it takes us. You see what sticks in my mind is that even after a 50% plunge in the Nasdaq, the pessimists think we're just getting started with the bad times. But you'd expect that from pessimists. They spent a long time in the dark, and now that they're out in the sun, they want to revel for as long as they can. My view is that perhaps we've just had the bad times, and the bears, as they often do, are settling down to feast just as the table gets cleared. I've boiled the bull case into eight points. Here we go:
On Tuesday, Greenspan hinted that maybe it's time to change the tune at the Fed and start moving to a more accommodative stance. One of the major keys to the bull-market sprint of yesteryear was a friendly Fed. If Greenspan follows through and starts reducing interest rates (the low unemployment rate, still at 3.9%, is one thing that might stay his hand), then we have a return of the most important element of the bull case. It's an old saw, but it still seems to work: Don't fight the Fed. If the Fed is no longer in a fighting mood, there's cause for optimism.
Consider that the Nasdaq is right around where it was in July, 1999, just before it began its remarkable sprint to 5000. That development -- increasing earnings on stock prices that, effectively, haven't moved -- has brought stock valuations back from the stratosphere. Are stocks cheap? No, they are not yet cheap. But this bull market -- if we're talking about a return to some of the flavor of yesteryear -- rarely produced cheap moments. Even in 1994, during the last soft-landing pause, stocks never became historically cheap. But that pause, once completed, became a great buying chance for the next several years.
Sure, some people are still hanging on, hoping and praying. But much of the selling, I would argue, has already been done. When sentiment gets this lousy, the contrarian view is that nobody is left out there to do a lot of selling. That's usually what happens when we find a bottom. Sixth, politics. Yes, lots of concern about politics these days. But step back from the minute-by-minute courtroom drama and you still get what works for the stock market: a government that can mainly tweak around the edges. I hate the term gridlock, but the fact is that, in this environment, sweeping, intrusive moves by the government are unlikely, if not impossible. And the market, generally, favors incrementalism from Washington.
What else can indicate that this eight-point bull thesis has merit? I like to turn to the Titans of high technology as market "tells." For a long time I favored Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - boards). On Tuesday these stocks shot higher, though Microsoft continues to have a tough time with litigation issues. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards), struggling most of this year, put in sharp gains on Tuesday. That's another key tell. If the big dogs start rolling, we're getting an indication that the bulls are back in the game. We've had many false starts, and one day does not a trend make. But inflection points have a way of sneaking up and surprising even the sharpest chin-scratchers. So, there's the bull case, adjusted and amended to fit our current world. Will it work? Let me know at Dave.Kansas@thestreet.com. Dave Kansas is editor-in-chief of TheStreet.com. In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, though he owns stock in TheStreet.com. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. He welcomes your feedback and invites you to send it to Dave.Kansas@thestreet.com.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
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