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Opinion: David Merkel
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Investing Is About the Whole Portfolio

By David Merkel
RealMoney.com Contributor

8/15/2005 9:23 AM EDT
 

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Aug. 12 at 3:00 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.

I'm not crazy about giving individual stock ideas on RealMoney because all investing is best viewed in a portfolio context. Individual stock ideas are important, but I believe portfolio construction and management are more important.

Too many investors are looking for the next hot company when they should really be looking for a consistent theory of how to produce reliable returns while minimizing downside risk.

In my column Evolution of an Investment Style, I tried to describe how I achieve above-average returns while trying to squeeze out risk. This is not an easy process, but it is achievable if you think about investing in the same way an intelligent businessman thinks about his own firm.

That's what my seven rules from that column are all about.

One of the first things you'll notice is that there doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to the order in which the stocks are listed. There is a logic here, but the order is based on the timing of initial purchases. Stocks that I have held the longest are on top, and stocks that I have bought for the first time most recently are at the bottom.

This helps me see on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis, which group of ideas are doing well. If my newest are doing well, there may be some mean-reversion happening in valuations.

If my oldest are doing well, there may be a bit of momentum happening for those that have already reverted to the mean. Because I tend to make shifts to the portfolio quarterly in groups of four or so stocks, I can see themes working out as I look at performance in the order that stocks were purchased.

The Current Portfolio

Listed below are the stocks in my portfolio. They are roughly equal-weighted.

Value With a Twist
David Merkel's current holdings
Name Aug. 10 Close P/E Yield Market Cap P/E (This Year) P/B P/S
Cemex (CX:NYSE) 46.94 6.99 2.51 16.80 8.98 1.83 1.45
Dycom (DY:NYSE) 23.50 21.08 - 1.15 20.98 2.01 1.13
Cytec (CYT:NYSE) 48.25 14.87 0.83 2.22 14.26 1.81 1.18
Ameron (AMN:NYSE) 37.25 21.08 2.14 0.32 10.35 1.14 0.49
Allstate (ALL:NYSE) 58.04 11.62 2.04 38.79 9.33 1.74 1.13
Unilever PLC (UL:NYSE) 41.19 19.40 3.51 66.36 13.18 6.90 1.32
Liz Claiborne (LIZ:NYSE) 41.80 14.18 0.54 4.57 13.71 2.43 0.94
Fresh Del Monte (FDP:NYSE) 25.46 10.80 3.91 1.47 10.97 1.37 0.46
Montpelier (MRH:NYSE) 34.27 11.12 4.08 2.17 7.53 1.49 2.36
PartnerRe (PRE:NYSE) 62.92 7.43 2.26 3.47 8.84 1.00 0.84
ConocoPhillips (COP:NYSE) 65.64 9.66 2.07 91.39 8.42 2.00 0.71
SPX Corp. (SPW:NYSE) 45.36 3.75 2.22 3.41 17.43 1.21 0.76
Canadian National Railway (CNI:NYSE) 67.44 16.43 1.26 18.57 15.36 2.44 3.23
Petro Canada (PCZ:NYSE) 79.42 18.95 0.74 20.83 12.13 2.78 1.67
Stone Energy (SGY:NYSE) 53.71 9.63 - 1.44 7.86 1.51 2.34
Barclays PLC (BCS:NYSE ADR) 42.39 12.67 4.22 68.39 11.54 2.20 2.85
Valero Energy (VLO:NYSE) 90.77 10.74 0.49 23.30 10.14 2.92 0.37
Toyota (TM:NYSE ADS) 78.42 11.93 1.24 128.10 11.12 1.53 0.75
Sappi (SPP:NYSE ADS) 10.88 51.92 2.78 2.46 90.00 1.13 0.50
Apache (APA:NYSE) 71.93 11.09 0.46 23.61 9.46 2.48 3.60
Premcor (PCO:NYSE) 81.05 9.80 0.08 7.24 9.91 2.75 0.38
Ryerson Tull (RT:NYSE) 19.37 6.05 1.28 0.49 5.13 1.05 0.10
Jones Apparel (JNY:NYSE) 29.03 13.14 1.79 3.44 12.10 1.31 0.70
Neenah Paper (NP:NYSE) 31.45 20.09 0.93 0.46 20.09 2.40 0.63
Johnson Controls (JCI:NYSE) 57.46 12.39 1.70 11.03 12.83 1.91 0.39
Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund (JOF:NYSE) 11.81 5.20 - 0.19 50.00 0.98 108.19
Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) 26.39 20.04 3.43 196.20 13.39 2.92 3.70
Sara Lee (SLE:NYSE) 20.02 13.31 3.83 15.76 13.51 4.61 0.80
Repsol (REP:NYSE) 29.61 14.95 2.19 36.15 8.98 2.00 0.80
Premium Standard (PORK:Nasdaq) 14.76 6.70 0.41 0.46 9.07 1.10 0.40
Anglo American (AAUK:Nasdaq ADR) 26.72 11.68 2.62 39.62 10.32 1.59 1.53
ABN AMRO (ABN:NYSE) 24.73 11.54 7.52 41.28 10.25 1.78 1.61
Gold Kist (GKIS:Nasdaq) 18.93 8.60 - 0.97 7.86 2.46 0.90
Dana (DCN:NYSE) 15.01 11.73 3.12 2.26 12.92 0.98 0.24
SABESP (SBS:NYSE) 17.14 8.00 4.52 1.95 10.05 0.54 0.98
11.68 2.04 4.57 10.97 1.81 0.90
Source: David Merkel, Yahoo!

This Portfolio Is Weird

Even though I manage this portfolio the same way that a "long-only" mutual fund manager would, because my portfolio is diversified by country and capitalization, it doesn't fit any of the neat classifications common to mutual funds. I'm not running a mutual fund for which I'm anxious to gather assets, so this doesn't bother me. Given that, I will now describe the way the portfolio breaks down by country, capitalization, sector and industry.

Sector Mix
The makeup of this portfolio defies easy categorization
Source: David Merkel

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At time of publication, Merkel and/or his fund was long Cemex, Dycom, Cytec, Ameron, Allstate, Unilever, Liz Claiborne, Fresh Del Monte, Montpelier, PartnerRe, ConocoPhillips, SPX, Canadian National Railway, Petro Canada, Stone Energy, Barclays PLC, Valero Energy, Toyota, Sappi, Apache, Premcor, Ryerson Tull, Jones Apparel, Neenah Paper, Johnson Controls, Japan Smaller-Capitalization Fund, Pfizer, Sara Lee, Repsol, Premium Standard Farms, Anglo American, ABN Amro, Gold Kist, Dana and SABESP, though positions may change at any time.

David J. Merkel, CFA, FSA, is a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. Previously, he managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Merkel cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

Analyst Certification: All of the views expressed in the report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the research analyst named herein was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in this report.

Merkel is employed by Hovde Capital Advisors LLC (the "firm"), a registered investment advisor with its principal office located in Washington, D.C. The Firm and/or its affiliates have or may have a long or short position or holding in the securities, options on securities, or other related investments of the issuers mentioned herein.

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