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Commentary: Christopher Edmonds *New* Alerts! Please click here...
This is the continuation of our analysis of Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders. For Part 1, click here. The Bubble BurstBuffett appears to have at least a small sense of pride in his year-ago prediction that the market could not sustain its lofty valuations. He says all the signs of a bubble were present and it was bound to burst, creating significant pain. "[A] pin lies in wait for every bubble," he wrote. "And when the two eventually meet, a new wave of investors learns some very old lessons. First, many in Wall Street -- a community where quality control is not prized -- will sell investors anything they will buy. Second, speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest." It was simply way too easy. "Far more irrational still were the huge valuations that market participants were then putting on businesses almost certain to end up being of modest or no value," Buffett wrote. "Yet, investors, mesmerized by soaring stock prices and ignoring all else piled into these enterprises. It's as if some virus, racing wildly among investment professionals as well as amateurs, induced hallucinations in which the values of stocks in certain sectors became decoupled from the values of the businesses that underlay them." "Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money." What's next? Buffett isn't saying. Instead, he gives his grandchildren's update of Aesop: "A girl in a convertible is worth five in the phone book." You can bet Buffett isn't cruising the "White Pages" in this market. Buffett BriefsBuffett's letter also always contains some gems. Here are a few from this year's missives: On the aging Buffett and Berkshire Vice-Chairman Charlie Munger:
On one-time charges taken by corporations to "hide" mistakes:
On recent speculation in the equity markets:
On former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt, Jr. and his efforts to curb selective disclosure and CEOs who were selective:
On CEOs who provide flowery business forecasts to analysts and investors:
Buffett's annual letter is only the beginning of a period of anticipation for thousands of Berkshire shareholders, culminating in the annual pilgrimage to Omaha to hear the Oracle respond to shareholder questions at Berkshire's annual meeting. This year's meeting will be on April 28, along with the usual trappings -- jewels from Borshiem's, furniture from Nebraska Furniture Mart and even jet airplane time-shares from Executive Jet. Oh, and don't forget steak from Gorat's, ice cream from Dairy Queen and baseball with the Omaha Golden Spikes, complete with Buffett facing Mr. Cub, Ernie Banks. Before then, join Robert Hagstrom -- author of The Warren Buffett Way and The Warren Buffett Portfolio -- and me for a chat about Buffett's letter and the annual report this Tuesday at 4 p.m. EST. You can join us by signing up from our chat page. And, let us know what you think. Shoot me an email about Buffett's letter or join the discussion on our message boards. To return to the beginning of this column,
click here.
Christopher S. Edmonds is president of Resource Dynamics, a private financial consulting firm based in Atlanta. At time of publication, neither Edmonds nor his firm held positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Edmonds cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback and invites you to send it to Chris Edmonds. TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.
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