Gore, Bush and Big Tobacco

For those interested in the future of tobacco stocks, this year's campaign offers a stark choice. On one side stands a native of Tennessee who has boasted of working with tobacco in his youth. On the other side stands the governor of a state that has sued Big Tobacco and is slated to receive $17 billion as its share of the settlement.

But the choice doesn't shake out the way you might expect. Democratic nominee Al Gore, whose sister died of lung cancer, has identified tobacco companies as enemies of public health. For his part, George W. Bush has spoken of tobacco about as frequently as he has mentioned the recession of the early 1990s.

Last March, just after Gore and Bush had essentially locked up the nominations of their respective parties, the Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of the Food and Drug Administration's efforts to regulate tobacco. While noting that tobacco "poses perhaps the single most significant threat to public health in the United States," the 5-4 decision nonetheless concluded that Congress had not empowered the FDA to regulate the product.

Big tobacco rejoiced. But Gore and President Bill Clinton both called for Congress to pass a law that would explicitly allow the FDA to regulate. "Tobacco hooks and eventually kills hundreds of thousands of people, and we shouldn't wait another day until we strengthen protections against it," Gore railed.

The Bush campaign had no comment. Indeed, searching for comments by Bush on tobacco is a little like seeking out fans of rap star Eminem at the Metropolitan Opera's excellent new production of Don Giovanni. There might be a few somewhere out there, but they're tough to find.

I have yet to find any instance in which Bush has mentioned the dreaded weed on the campaign trail. The Bush-Dick Cheney campaign Web site notes that the governor created tobacco education programs aimed at children and enforcement activities aimed at restricting youth access to tobacco. And in 1997 Texas was one of the first states to contract with the FDA to conduct unannounced retail compliance checks to make sure stores weren't selling smokes to kids.

But Bush is certainly less inclined to view publicly held tobacco companies such as Philip Morris (MO:NYSE - news - boards), RJR Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Co. (RJR:NYSE - news - boards) and Loews (LTR:NYSE - news - boards) as cash cows to fund government health programs or the lavish lifestyles of trial lawyers. (His administration in Texas has tried to challenge the size of some of the fees to be paid to plaintiffs' lawyers in the tobacco suits.)

By contrast, Gore's position on tobacco has all the subtlety of an unfiltered Turkish cigarette. In Gore's rogues' gallery, Big Tobacco hangs front and center, alongside HMOs, drug companies and oil drillers. As noted, he supports legislation that would empower the FDA to regulate cigarettes. And if elected, Gore would certainly seek to continue the efforts to further regulate the marketing and sale of cigarettes, and to make the industry pay for the health problems its products are presumed to cause.

The real action next year may be in Congress. While Bush's position has been difficult to smoke out, many of his Republican allies in Congress have been far more forthright. Several leading congressional Republicans have railed against the activist FDA. And they've been richly rewarded for doing so.

In the early 1990s, Democrats received about 43% of tobacco donations. But so far in this campaign cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, Republicans have hauled in about 85% of tobacco's $4.47 million in campaign largesse. Dickie Scruggs, the plaintiffs' lawyer with the Faulknerian name, may be one of the nation's leading scourges of tobacco. But his brother-in-law, Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, is one of Joe Camel's best buddies in Congress.

If elected, George W. Bush may not rush to the Hill urging his Republican friends to empower the government to regulate the nation's oldest cash crop out of existence. But neither is he likely to weaken the FDA's aggressive posture. After all, David Kessler, the longtime FDA commissioner who emerged as a modern-day version of prohibitionist Carrie Nation, was appointed by George Bush Sr. And Bush has expressed little desire to use the power of the presidency to roll back controversial FDA decisions.

In one of the presidential debates, Bush was asked what he would do about the FDA's recent approval of RU-486, the much-debated abortion pill. The short answer from the steadfastly pro-life candidate? Nothing.

In the 1884 presidential campaign, Republican nominee James G. Blaine, a former Senator, tagged Democrat Grover Cleveland, the governor of a big state, as the candidate of "Rum, Romanism and Rebellion." In the 2000 presidential campaign, Democratic nominee Al Gore, a former Senator, is trying to tar Republican George W. Bush, the governor of a big state, as the ally of Marlboro, Merck and Marathon Oil.

The alliterative sloganeering didn't work for Blaine, who may have been undone by his oddball nickname -- "the Plumed Knight." And it might not work for the Prince of Tennessee.

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Daniel Gross (www.danielgross.com) is the author of Bull Run: Wall Street, the Democrats, and the New Politics of Personal Finance. The New York-based journalist has written about the intersection of business and politics for The Washington Post, New York magazine, The New York Times and The New York Observer. He welcomes your feedback at [e-mail].