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Five ETF Plays for a Short-Term Reversal
Page 2

 
Click here for larger image.
Source: TradeStation

If LQD breaks out above its range, the obvious short-term target is resistance at its 50-day MA, just below the $93 level. A protective stop could be placed 1-1.5 points below the breakout level. If LQD rallies to its 50-day MA and continues to act well thereafter, an added bonus is the regular dividend distributions of LQD (and other fixed-income ETFs as well).

Showing relative strength to the broad market for the past two weeks, the Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH - commentary - Cramer's Take) may soon reverse both its short and intermediate-term downtrends. A convincing rally above Thursday's high will cause PPH to reclaim support of its 20-day exponential moving average (the beige line on the chart below). Since the 20-day EMA has perfectly acted as resistance for the past two months, a close above that pivotal resistance level will indicate a change of sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector. SPDR Select Sector Health Care (XLV - commentary - Cramer's Take) is another ETF in the sector with a similar chart pattern, as you can see below.

Click here for larger image.
Source: TradeStation

Sporting a similar chart pattern to the pharmaceutical sector are the utilities. The Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU - commentary - Cramer's Take) is in play on a breakout above the Oct. 29 high. This would put VPU above its 20-day EMA for the first time in two months.

For a little more price confirmation, consider waiting for a rally above the Oct. 20 high of $61.87 before buying a full position. As with so many stocks and ETFs showing relative strength and attempting to reverse their downtrends, resistance of the 50-day MA (around $68, as seen below) is a logical target in VPU. In the same sector, iShares Utilities (IDU - commentary - Cramer's Take) is also a possibility.

Click here for larger image.
Source: TradeStation

For those of you who like to trade the major indices, the Dow is showing the most relative strength of the group. On Oct. 29, both the Diamonds (DIA - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ultra Dow 30 ProShares (DDM - commentary - Cramer's Take) were the only broad-based ETFs that probed resistance of their 20-day EMAs, as well as resistance of their prior highs. A close above that day's high in the Dow would correspond to a breakout above both its 20-day EMA and "swing high" of Oct. 21, as seen below.

Click here for larger image.
Source: TradeStation





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At the time of publication, Wagner had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Deron Wagner is the founder and head trader of Morpheus Trading Group. His daily focus is managing and trading the Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund, which he founded in April of 2004. He also teaches his trading methodology with The Wagner Daily, The MTG Stalk Sheet, and The Wagner Weekly newsletters.

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