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RealMoney.com: Retail
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HD Preview: Estimates Continue to Fall

By Brian Gilmartin
RealMoney Contributor

11/17/2008 9:45 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Brian Gilmartin
 
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We'll get some idea of how the October quarter transpired for the home improvement, do-it-yourself retailers, when Lowe's (LOW - commentary - Cramer's Take) reports on Monday morning, with Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take) scheduled to quickly follow those results on Tuesday morning before the bell. Analysts expect Home Depot to report earnings of 38 cents per share, a year-over-year decline of 35%, and $17.738 billion in revenue, for a year-over-year decline of 7%, driven by a quarterly comp that was down 8%.

 
Home Depot's margins have the potential for some improvement -- thus, the healthy earnings upside surprises could continue -- but waiting for the housing recovery has been like waiting for Godot, and recent comments during Toll Brothers' (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) earnings report, indicate that the housing and homebuilder environment took another turn for the worse in October.

While it appears as if existing and new home sales have slowed their rate of deterioration, the earnings and revenue estimates for Home Depot indicate that fiscal 2009 (ends January 2010) continues to see downward earnings and revenue revisions, as analyst consensus is now expecting a 7% revenue decline and an 8% earnings decline through 2009, down from an expected 3% revenue decline and 10% earnings growth just two quarters ago.

There is no end yet to downward revisions of Home Depot's forward estimates.

The one bright spot for value investors is that, as foreclosures grow as a percentage of existing home sales, these frequently heavily damaged homes require quite a bit of repair once the new buyer assumes the foreclosed property. According to a recent research note out of Jesup & Lamont (dated Oct. 27, 2008), "foreclosures in the third quarter rose 71% year over year, with six states -- California, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Ohio and Florida -- accounting for 60% of total foreclosures."

Those six states contain 590 of Home Depot's 1,950 total U.S. store base, or 30% of the U.S. stores.

HD Estimates
Home Depot
2008 EPS 2009 EPS 2008 revenue (in millions) 2009 revenue (in millions)
Nov. 14, 2008 $1.71 $1.57 $72,239 $70,930
Oct. 31, 2008 $1.72 $1.62 $72,447 $71,339
Sept. 30, 2008 $1.75 $1.75 $72,615 $72,217
July 31, 2008 $1.71 $1.82 $72,380 $72,906
April 30, 2008 $1.76 $1.98 $72,751 $74,493
Jan. 31, 2008 $2.21 $2.41 $76,063 $79,154
Nov. 30, 2007 $2.46 $2.76 $77,875 $81,669
Source: Thomson Reuters

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At the time of publication, Gilmartin had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.

Brian Gilmartin, CFA, founded Trinity Asset Management (TAM) in 1995, where he is currently a portfolio manager. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Gilmartin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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