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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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How Are the Mortgage Insurers Still Viable?

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/10/2009 12:40 PM EST
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Of all the great mysteries of the stock market, four issues just befuddle me beyond reason. I would love to hear comments here about why they are in business: MBIA (MBI - commentary - Trade Now), PMI (PMI - commentary - Trade Now), MGIC (MTG - commentary - Trade Now) and Ambac (ABK - commentary - Trade Now). Here are companies that reported horrendous losses -- MBIA's $3.50 loss yesterday being a great example -- and still trade as if they are hanging in, doing well, paying claims and very much alive.

In fact, they go up on the most horrendous news, just levitate! Last night's MBIA loss is staggering, especially because it was attributed to credit derivatives. The bizarre element of these companies is that they insured so much housing mortgage paper and credit aggregate paper -- CDOs and the like -- that if they could really pay off the mess they insured, the system would be much stronger. The fact that it is down horribly doesn't mean much. The fact that it is still a stock at all is incredible to me.

At one point a year and a half ago, we were gripped with the notion that their potential insolvency would threaten the whole capitalist system because banks were using their insurance to insure against default, which allowed them to value paper that might otherwise be down severely as par or such whereabouts. Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Trade Now) relied on PMI and MGIC for protection against losses that are now so horrific that I can't believe that insurance is worth anything.

Yet these stocks still trade, and MBIA amazingly traded up last night after its report before coming back to earth this morning. Who buys this stock at all except short-coverers? Do the longs have any idea what they are buying? What do they know? How can the stock be a real call on the company? Who keeps using them to insure anything? Why are they trusted? Why weren't they put in receivership by someone? Are we simply saying in the case of MBIA and Ambac that they are going to insure municipals but not derivatives? What happened to their guarantees? How can the common still be worth something if they aren't paying off?

These mysteries of stocks, stocks that you think would have cease to trade, exist throughout the system, for everything from Sirius XM Radio (SIRI - commentary - Trade Now), where the bonds seem like a much better bet, to Beazer Homes (BZH - commentary - Trade Now), which just reported -- how in the heck did these housing companies stay alive? -- to the four horsemen of housing-related insurance companies.

If anyone has an answer I welcome it. You can put it in the Columnist Conversation and maybe we can all hash it out together.

What the heck am I missing?

Random musings: Speaking of missing something, how in the heck did a U.S. government three-year auction do so well? Where is the money coming from to buy these notes? Especially at such exorbitant prices?

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand-new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my Action Alerts PLUS service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 7 p.m. Barnes & Noble, Manhattan (33 East 17th St.)





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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