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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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A Boxed-In Market

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

11/3/2009 1:46 PM EST
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Why isn't the market acting better after Warren Buffett's big bet on Burlington Northern (BNI - commentary - Trade Now), his biggest deal? Because it's a crummy market right now, one that no one believes in, one that everyone has one foot out the door of and one that revolves around oil, tech and banks.

 
Oil is making a big move here, a nice recovery actually. Who knows how much lower we would be if oil hadn't rallied? It was down in the middle of the night and totally pressured the futures, as it is the single most important determinant of prices, given the commoditization of the market. Tech can't rally on a day when Morgan Stanley downgrades the semis. Important downgrade, given how good the analyst is.

Banks? I am becoming convinced that until we see secondaries from Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Trade Now) and Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now), we won't get any lift, because these are free shorts. This market has not changed its stripes since March. Unless you have all three of these segments up, you can't mount a serious rally. It doesn't matter if Warren Buffett buys all four rails. We are simply in a real bad place right now, and it will not be ameliorated by a couple of takeovers.

That doesn't mean the market is bad. It just means that the market may go nowhere unless all three groups align.

Consider this market as one giant slot machine. Unless you get three bells or three plums or three sevens, you are a loser.

That's us.

That's all we are. Which is why I said it is time to get back into Wellpoint (WLP - commentary - Trade Now), Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Trade Now), McDonald's (MCD - commentary - Trade Now) or General Mills (GIS - commentary - Trade Now) each time they are down. It's just too unpleasant otherwise and not worth the effort. I would also consider Becton Dickinson (BDX - commentary - Trade Now) (flu needles) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB - commentary - Trade Now) as well as Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Trade Now) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY - commentary - Trade Now).

Don't get me wrong. I want to buy any industrials or retailers on weakness. I like the oils, particularly Marathon (MRO - commentary - Trade Now). I am itching to buy Intel (INTC - commentary - Trade Now).

But there is no reason to scratch the itch, as you can always wait until the programs and the stops take things down to levels that are easily reached at the drop of a hat.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long BAC, BMY, MRO, PG and WFC.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my ActionAlertsPlus.com service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 7 p.m. Barnes & Noble, Manhattan (33 East 17th St.)





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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