First Niagara -- The Model Stock to Own

When we look back at the coming great banking consolidation making a host of new colossuses we will think about First Niagara's (FNFG - commentary - Trade Now) acquisition of Harleysville National (HNBC - commentary - Trade Now) announced on a sleepy Monday near the end of July 2009.

First Niagara, a Lockport, N.Y., bank, earlier this year received a gift from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. -- a big chunk of PNC Financial (PNC - commentary - Trade Now) branches -- made necessary because PNC had too much market power courtesy of its now seemingly disastrous acquisition of National City. That move gave First Niagara a foothold in western Pennsylvania to complement its New York base.

Monday's acquisition of Pennsylvania-based Harleysville, stolen at about $5 for a bank that used to trade four times higher than that just a few years ago, solidifies Pittsburgh for First Niagara and gives it a great toehold into the fastest growing section of the Philadelphia area (and a place where I used to live, for the record.)

First Niagara will now have 3.15% of the Pennsylvania market for $237 million. The all-stock deal is immediately accretive and will put FNFG on the launching pad to be the next big regional bank in the East.

People have forgotten that this is exactly how Fleet went from a tiny bank to a big one. Fleet quietly accumulated bank after a bank during the previous bank crisis, ultimately giving you about a 500% return when it was acquired a decade later.

Given that First Niagara now has critical mass and maintains a great balance sheet, it will be in line to buy branches from the FDIC in its area or make fill-in acquisitions by accumulating inexpensive banks that can't grow because they don't have the capital to do so.

First Niagara, to me, is the model bank to own for the next move in this cycle. The next wave of the bank consolidation has now begun.

Random musings: Warburg Pincus' investment in Webster Financial (WBS - commentary - Trade Now) would seem to indicate that Warburg Pincus wants Webster to be its vehicle for consolidation in the New England area. Lots of well-capitalized banks up there now, though. FNFG's a better vehicle.

People should be very wary of the market for the moment given Doug Kass's asset allocation model. Check it out it if you missed it Monday.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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Know What You Own: Cramer mentioned PNC. Related banks are SunTrust (STI - commentary - Trade Now), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB - commentary - Trade Now) and Northern Trust (NTRS - commentary - Trade Now).

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