In 2009, It All Comes Down to China

I wish it were confirmed by the Baltic Freight Index, but it isn't, and one of the highest-profile dry bulk tanker companies, Armada -- a Singapore-based company -- actually filed for a reorganization last night. I wish it were confirmed by more than just a blip up in copper and some talk that steel is holding up after a precipitous decline. I wish it were confirmed by lending in this country, although the St. Louis Fed released numbers last night that showed lending is pretty strong. Go figure. And I certainly wish it were confirmed by any actual orders to actual companies.

But it hasn't been.

I thought the spike up in oil is entirely because of Gaza; however, I am hearing that China's buying, although that's not even money-in-the-bank info.

Why is it so important? Because I want a thesis for why people are so excited about this market, other than "they are done selling." I want something more than just "stocks are cheap," because my best macro earnings-per-share people are saying that the market's really at 13 times forward earnings: no bargain. And I want leadership besides the fertilizers -- obvious to expect good numbers from those well-based stocks -- to take us somewhere.

So I settle on China. And the prospects that Europe joins with China in more rate cuts, which do matter.

It does feel like a train-leaving-the-station market.

Because of my discipline from long ago not to buy a market that is over +5 on the S&P oscillator that I use, available for a fee from the S&P Corporation (I endlessly push this and deserve a commission for it, for heaven's sake), I can't buy up here for AAPlus.

However, at least I have a thesis, which is more than a lot of other buyers have. Good to have one. Otherwise we know that it is just euphoria, and euphoria has a funny way of ending.

Random musings: Barclays has a good piece out on the distortions that the Ultra funds are giving us in individual stocks. Not as good as Eric Oberg's work for us at the end of the year, but nicely dovetailed. ... Yes, Madoff's split strategy actually lost money for the last eight years, if he actually did it. No, I don't know how the fund-of-funds guys got away with this one.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Hewlett-Packard.

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Know what you own: Cramer mentions Toll Brothers. Other companies in the homebuilder industry include Centex (CTX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Pulte (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and KB Home (KBH - commentary - Cramer's Take).

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