Don't Buy the Tech Story

The "bottom" the mutual funds are calling for in tech, the one that had Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor (NSM - commentary - Cramer's Take) not go down, the one that I hear calling for endlessly because inventories are so low, will be tested today. I don't see either Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Oracle (ORCL - commentary - Cramer's Take) helping the cause, although they won't hurt it because both reported terrific top-line growth and Oracle had the bottom line too. I just see the major semis, ex-Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take), heading back to where they weren't supposed to go back to because the bottom was supposed to be in.

If you recall, the market's collective mind-set was that this was the last bad quarter and these companies could not go lower.

That view got extended to Intel with its then-4.5% yield. Of course it got extended to the much-beloved Lam Research (LRCX - commentary - Cramer's Take) and KLA-Tencor (KLAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Applied Materials (AMAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and the like -- although Jefferies slammed 'em yesterday.

Today Lam reports some number that people will like, even as it seems terrible to me. The slight decline from what was expected will be considered the bottom.

What I want to know is how much of this is technically driven and how much is actual. The playbook for these big mutual funds is to buy these stocks, leg into them, when inventories are so low. That's where they are now.

But if they take out those hard-fought lows, I think people will realize the truth: Next quarter is much worse, so you haven't bought the trough yet.

I say these stocks should be sold into any strength. I am still not buying the tech rally. I am and have been radically underinvested in tech for Action Alerts PLUS. I bet that the "action" in these stocks will now bring out sellers, and the mutual funds will not be there to support them.

Before oil collapsed, we had all sorts of correlations with the commodity. When the dollar went down, the market mavens told us that oil would go up as protection. But the dollar has taken a huge swing and no one cared. Tech used to climb when oil went down, but that has not happened.

Now, the fundamentals and the charts will go against the group. It remains a sale no matter how many analysts come out in its favor.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.

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