I'm Still Watching Chevron and Exxon

Oil can't lift but it can't go down, either. Most of the projections I hear have oil at $40. Given that most of the projections have been wrong, endlessly, I am taking my cue from Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), which have had monster moves off their lows since oil plunged to these levels. How many stocks have moved the equivalent of $62 to $80? That's not the kind of change that you would expect with this oil plunge.

Could Exxon be wrong? I often criticize the way the stock trades because it has been responsible for the beginning of every turn in this market, even if the oil futures are going down. But when oil was roaring, this stock just kept going down. I think Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) is definitely wrong down 6 because the stock is back to 2003 levels. I say give me a break. That's nonsense. That presumes no value created, it presumes massive contract breaking. It presumes panic. I am not buying that at all...

Now that we know that OPEC isn't going to close the spigot -- perhaps to finally kill alternative energy like First Solar (FSLR - commentary - Cramer's Take) or natural gas like Chesapeake (CHK - commentary - Cramer's Take) or wind, hence the endless decline of Trinity (TRN - commentary - Cramer's Take) even after Jeff Gendell/Tontine Partners -- we should be down big today. It will take the warmest winter to further push this one down.

The oil longs all fret over the down-$3 starting price. I say. "We have seen this down $3 before, repeatedly before," and it has led to nothing but a bounce.

I have to believe that this is just one more down fake. I cannot believe that the CVX/XOM rallies can be repealed in any size, and am watching them today for a turn in the market's fortunes.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron.

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