Cramer Bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part IV

This is the fourth part of Jim Cramer's series of predictions for the Dow components in 2009. Be sure to read the first, second and third parts.

Cramer's Dow Outlook for 2009 Company Target 2008 Close % Change Dow Point Change JPM $39.00 $31.53 19.15% 59.5 KFT $29.00 $26.85 7.41% 17.1 MCD $70.00 $62.19 11.16% 62.2 MRK $34.00 $30.40 10.59% 28.7 MSFT $21.00 $19.44 7.43% 12.4 MMM $63.00 $57.54 8.67% 43.5 Source: TheStreet.com

JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take): Jamie Dimon is revered, but we are in a tough market for the consumer in 2009, which truly worries me. That said, the stock has been killed by Dimon's own pessimistic projections, and I don't believe they will pan out as badly as he does.

The dividend appears safe, and I believe that the second half of the year will see some lending improvement and merger activity. I see it going back to where it did a huge equity offering at $39 a share, a nice appreciation from this beaten-down level. It's good, but I believe that Wells Fargo's (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take) performance will give it a run for the money.

My one worry here is the purchase of Washington Mutual. This was another deal that looked great when the Resolution Mortgage Trust part of TARP was still alive -- I don't believe that it would have been worth buying Washington Mutual without it. But that's all too late, and now JPMorgan has to rationalize the two entities and cut costs as aggressively as possible, something Jamie Dimon knows to do better than anyone in the banking world ... with the exception of Wells Fargo.

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Kraft (KFT - commentary - Cramer's Take): This one has got a good yield and declining raw costs, and I believe that you will see a good turnaround in the company's fortunes. Any buyer of foodstuff commodities will benefit year over year, and Kraft almost can't help but improve.

Management has gotten religion, and I believe the yield alone -- so bountiful -- can take the stock to $29. This one has potential for more upside than that, but I don't want to go too crazy, because there are better food stocks out there, especially General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is very cheap given its high-quality portfolio of products.

The problem with all of these food stocks in 2009 will be a sense that we are about to see a turn in the economy, and every time we get that kind of rotation, this one will be beaten up. It deserves better, as the company is rationalizing its assets after years of frittering. It's a mac-and-cheese year.

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