Unfortunately, time and technology have all but eliminated cigar butt opportunities, and most investors' experience consists of long-running bull markets and shallow and short recessions. Even the 2000-2002 Nasdaq burst was really in one sector, technology, which left plenty of places to hide in other sectors or styles. That was a great period for the value style, for instance.

The decline so far in this bear is equivalent to the 2000-2002 decline, but it certainly feels much worse because the destruction is across the board. The closest analog so far is the 1973-1974 bear, which was broad-based and driven by the economy rather than overvaluation.

Trillions of pixels have been flickered, contemplating when the bottom will arrive. My stance is that:

1. I don't know; but, more importantly,
2. it won't occur until real buyers find valuations so compelling that it's worth risking capital.