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What's interesting to note, however, is that while Prudhoe Bay's yield today is nearly 12%, when the stock traded in the low teens three years ago, it yielded about 15%. Why hasn't this dramatic share price increase seen a corresponding drop in the yield? Because payouts have risen substantially, right along with the prices of oil and natural gas. Now, this inherently describes the key risk to such holdings: the price of energy. If that were to decline in a lasting way, so would payouts. Indeed, if one believes that rising interest rates in the U.S. and Europe could lead to a slowing global economy, then the demand-side story that has boosted energy could bring about the opposite for a while, regardless of how compelling the long-term energy story is. Still, in trying to find an answer to the question of whether value remains in this sector, Elliott Gue, editor of The Energy Strategist, pointed out the recent action in the oil and gas royalty trusts. "We were pleasantly surprised by how the gas-related royalty trusts held up recently," he told me late last week by telephone. A six-month view of PrimeWest Energy Trust (PWI - commentary - Cramer's Take), one of the few Canadian trusts listed on a U.S. exchange, shows what he's referring to:
Despite the fact that the price of natural gas been nearly cut in half since late December, the price of this trust -- which has a 75% weighting in natural gas -- hasn't budged, and it's representative of the way most gas trusts have acted lately. To Gue's way of thinking, this may suggest these companies won't swing violently with every dip in oil or gas. If we're living in a new world where energy prices will be generally higher than we had gotten used to, say, with oil ranging from $50-$70/barrel, then the payouts in high-quality trusts should be sustainable and the stocks relatively stable, Gue surmises. The 'Point of Pain' for Oil: $70As the price of crude nears $70 once again, many are suggesting that it's poised to reach $80-$100/barrel. Maybe. The one-year chart of crude certainly hasn't signaled a breakdown:
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Charles P. Hanlon focuses on non-dollar investments. He is currently the president of Delta Global Advisors. At the time of publication, Hanlon had no positions in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Investing in foreign markets involves unique risks including, but not limited to, currency fluctuation and political risk. In addition, international investing is typically more expensive for U.S. investors than buying shares listed on a U.S. exchange. Hanlon appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.
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