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RealMoney.com: The Turnaround Artist
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Too Much Love in These Stocks?

By Arne Alsin
RealMoney.com Contributor

8/15/2003 7:29 AM EDT
 
 Stock Analysis NEUTRAL
  • Krispy Kreme can grow into its market value.
  • NovaStar isn't as cheap as it seems.
  • Amazon may not be in for a big decline.

In this week's segment of my continuing dialogue with RealMoney subscribers, I'll answer your questions about companies that you think are overvalued. I think you'll be very surprised by my responses to at least a couple of the companies that I discuss below. By the way, next Friday's Q&A is an open forum -- email me with any question.




Question: Do you agree with all of those shorts on Krispy Kreme (KKD - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

-- M.M.

Answer: No. Shorting Krispy Kreme is too pat, too easy and shortsighted as well. With 20% of its share base now shorted, it's also too popular. I don't care much about earnings and other traditional metrics here. Ask yourself a simple question: Is Krispy Kreme, with minimal current domestic store coverage, going to be a lot bigger company over the next several years? I think the answer is yes.

With an annual revenue run rate of only $700 million or so, the market cap of $2.5 billion seems much too high. But the company can easily grow into -- even outgrow -- this market value.

Shorts here are in peril of being "Starbuxed." Shorts of Starbucks (SBUX - commentary - Cramer's Take) didn't believe in the rapid store buildout of the past few years. And those shorts have paid the price. Starbucks, by the way, generates more than $3 billion in revenue and sports a $10 billion market value. I wouldn't be surprised if Krispy Kreme approaches half of that in three to five years: $1.5 billion in revenue and $5 billion market value.

If I'm right, current shorts who hold fast will lose much more than 100%. I think the stock price will double, plus the shorts have to pay the carrying cost of the short (margin interest).


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Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor and portfolio manager of The Turnaround Fund, a no-load mutual fund. At time of publication, neither Alsin nor ACM held a position in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to arne@alsincapital.com. Click here to receive Arne's latest favorite stock picks from his newsletter, The Turnaround Report.
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