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Using stop-losses results in decision-making asymmetry. You should seek symmetry in your buying and selling decision-making process. You can't buy because you like the long-term fundamentals, such as management, price, value and competitive position, and then sell because of nonfundamental factors, like a 10% price decline. Buying and selling decisions should be based on the same underlying thought process; in my case, all decisions are fundamentally based. The fact that a stock goes down or up by 10% after I buy it is irrelevant because I'm confident in my estimate of its long-term value. Stop-losses are a form of insurance. Maybe you use a stop-loss as insurance in case you missed something in your fundamental analysis. It can add up to a fairly pricey policy, if you factor in trading costs and slippage. The better -- and cheaper -- form of insurance is simply to raise your buying criteria. If you spend more time getting the fundamentals right in the first place, then the extra insurance cost of a stop-loss is unnecessary. Don't chase tails. You shouldn't allocate capital to a stock unless you think it's a compelling value. If you thought a stock was a compelling value when you bought it, then why sell it after it declines 10%? If you use stop-losses this way, you're simply chasing the tails of other investors. Assume that you'll never buy at the low and that a stock will decline over the short term after you buy it. Stop-losses are arbitrary. There's nothing magical about a stop-loss point. Are you willing to accept a 10% price decline? Why not 12% or 15%? Whether you draw a line at 10% or 30%, it's still an arbitrary one.
Consider a Double-Up Strategy
Your second buy lowers the average cost basis for the total position. If you're right on the position -- that it's undervalued -- you'll end up making volatility your friend. And to the extent that you buy more shares at a price demonstrably lower than the company's underlying business value, your margin of safety is wider.
Friday Q&ALook for my regular Q&A column this Friday, where I'll be answering your "off-the-wall" questions. On the following Fridays, I'll be taking your questions on specific stocks that you think are extremely undervalued (Aug. 8) and overvalued (Aug. 15). Send me an email if you have a question for me.
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Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor and portfolio manager of The Turnaround Fund, a no-load mutual fund. At time of publication, neither Alsin nor ACM held a position in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to arne@alsincapital.com.
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