Seeing Through the Silver Lining

Trying to find any silver lining is a stretch, a total stretch. I say that because I genuinely believe that Katrina's impact, physical, financial, fiscal and emotional, is so negative and so heavy that to believe anything "good" can come of it just seems ridiculous to me.

That said, let's understand the developing bull case so people can get their arms around why the market may be going up when it "should" be going down.

First, the major premise is that the disaster will put the Fed on hold. That's why the market rallied last week. I believe that the Fed's chances of going on hold increased markedly, but I always need to remind you that this was the Fed that knew the economy was slowing in 2000 and still took rates to 6.5% in 2001. That history tempers any "Fed done" talk.

Second, we had been hearing a lot about how the savings rate in the country had gone negative and the consumer was out of steam. There will be a short-term money creation-rebuild event that could temper that worry. I believe it will be short vs. what was lost, but to not acknowledge the impact is silly.

Third, there are companies that benefit from the rush to construct. But my reluctance to embrace this as a stock-saving thesis is that there aren't enough construction plays to matter. The headlong rush into Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) is a desperate sign of how few plays there really are.

Fourth, we have history that says that big crises tend to produce big upswings. Frankly, it is the latter that makes my cautious stance seem like "conventional wisdom" that must be bet against. All I can say is that, while crises have tended to impact the market positively, the positive impact tends to come from point one, the Fed. And right now, we still haven't heard a peep from the Fed that is encouraging of a new stance.

Random musings: Amazing, the LinkShare sale, which was huge for Internet Capital Group (ICGE - commentary - Cramer's Take), was actually in the estimates. That's why this company, which had about as much cash as it had valuation before the rally today, may still not be a great buy. ... Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) upgrade seems perfunctory. ... Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) piece by Apjit Walia this morning less positive than I would have hoped.

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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Intel.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." Cramer appreciates your feedback and invites you to send him an email by clicking here.