Bubbleheads, Admit Defeat by Housing

As Toll Brothers (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) cruises through $100, it's time to hold the bubbleheads accountable. Who are the bubbleheads, in my book? Those are the people who have told you to bet against housing and to be worried about the speculative boom in homes.

Here's where I am coming from. All day, I listen to and read people who say that housing's got to roll over, that these companies can't work, that it is just a matter of time. Then I look to see what's been outperforming these stocks. Is it drugs? I don't think so. Financials? Nah. Techs? Nope, not at all. Now I want to know when those who have warned us incessantly or told us it can't last will get their comeuppance.

One thing we know about being a bear: It's a loved sport. You always sound so professorial, so logical. The cynics in journalism -- a cynical profession by nature -- love to interview the cynics. But at what point are the cynics wrong and not just early? When Toll is at $200? Is that when they are defeated? $300? It's an interesting question.

I think that if you are going to prognosticate, you have to be willing, at a certain point, to say, "Well, I was wrong about that one." If you can't do it, you aren't prognosticating; you are a doctrinal prisoner of a dogma that's not working.

That's where we are now, with Toll at $100. We must be willing to hold these people accountable for being wrong.

Or we should just stop caring and keeping score at all.

Random musings: You want disconnect? Go to Europe. You've got bourses over there hitting multi-year highs, for heaven's sake, without anything to back it up, save some oil stocks. It's pretty amazing, as we sit here and try to figure out how little exposure our tech companies have to Europe -- because the ones that have a ton are going to blow up -- yet the European markets are much, much better than ours. France, Netherlands, Germany, even London, in their local currencies, are just killing us. Very strange.

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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."