The Probabilities of War

The U.S. administration claims troops would be withdrawn and Iraq turned over to a civilian government within two years. Given that U.S. troops remain in Germany 58 years after World War II, in South Korea 50 years after the Korean War armistice and in Saudi Arabia 12 years after the first Gulf War, I rate this claim at only 10%: very unlikely.

Additional Assessments

Discovery of "smoking gun" by U.N. inspectors in the next four weeks: 25%, unlikely. Although plenty of information from defectors, previous U.N. inspections, spy satellites and phone intercepts suggests that Iraq has hidden biological and chemical weapons, aside from some unloaded chemical shells, suspicious "rocket" tubes that could be for extracting uranium and 300 missiles with greater than allowed range, the inspectors have reported finding only less than enthusiastic cooperation.

U.N. approves second resolution authorizing war: 50%, could go either way. The Feb. 14 inspectors' report was unexpectedly ambivalent -- the Iraqis have cooperated just enough to convince some that inspections are working. Two resolutions were introduced on Monday -- the first from the U.S., U.K. and Spain declaring that Iraq was in material breach and should face serious consequences within two weeks.

The second resolution from France, Germany and Russia proposes to enlarge and extend the inspection process for an additional four months. Neither proposal has much chance of clearing vetoes from the permanent members of the Security Council, let alone attaining a majority vote. The problem is, the U.S. can't wait much past March 15 before the increasing heat and length of deployment starts degrading military effectiveness.

Use of chemical and biological weapons by Iraq once the war starts: 90%, very probable. Perhaps the most telling information is that chemical weapons suits were issued to Iraqi soldiers and members of the elite in recent weeks. Iraq did not use such weapons in the first Gulf War because the U.S. threatened to retaliate against Baghdad with nuclear force if such weapons had been used.

The Iraqi army collapses within days or weeks: 50%, could go either way. In the first Gulf War, Iraqi forces were routed from Kuwait after 100 hours of ground combat. However, forces occupying Kuwait were poorly trained, poorly armed conscripts with little desire to hold territory or fight back.

This time around, I can see U.S. forces rapidly taking southern, western and northern Iraq but getting bogged down around Baghdad. Hussein has drawn in the Republican Guard -- the elite Iraqi forces -- and positioned units among the civilian population. Rifles and ammunition have been distributed to most adults. Just rent Black Hawk Down to see how horrible fighting in such an environment could be.

It's quite straightforward for U.S. forces to surround Baghdad, cut off the electricity and water supplies and starve out the defenders, but that outcome would be a public relations disaster. Also, Iraqi troops would be fighting on home territory, which might stiffen their resolve.

Further small- and medium-size terrorist attacks: 99%, practically guaranteed. Terrorists have launched attacks against U.S. interests for more than a decade (the first World Trade Center attack, USS Cole, American embassies in Africa, Saudi Arabian barracks, etc.). Since the Sept. 11 attack, there have been a dozen additional attacks, including a bombing of a French tanker, an attack on French engineers in Pakistan, 200 killed in Bali, a hotel bombing in Nairobi (and a failed attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner) and assorted assassinations throughout the Middle East.

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David Edwards is a portfolio manager and president of Heron Capital Management, a New York management firm. Edwards was a contributor to Harry Domash's Fire Your Stock Analyst: Analyzing Stocks On Your Own available at Amazon. At the time of publication, his firm was held positions in General Electric mentioned in this column, though positions may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Edwards appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to David Edwards.

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