Cramer Bullish on the Dow for '09 -- Part I

American Express (AXP - commentary - Cramer's Take): It is hard for me to believe, with the credit markets frozen and with individuals being strapped and the poorly managed nature of the company -- going full bore into consumer lending just at the absolute wrong time -- that American Express can do much of anything. But it has TARP money, and that will allow it to get through this terrible period.

I also believe that the consumer, once buoyed by a better stock market and a stabilizing house price, will do some spending per the nationwide wealth improvement. It could go back to $22, a decent return, and the dividend is not in jeopardy because of TARP's easy terms. What a shame that management got into consumer lending at the top of the cycle. The government's bailout will let it ride through the tough period, though.

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AT&T (T - commentary - Cramer's Take): This is one of my favorite stocks in the Dow and one that I suspect can raise its dividend again in 2009. And that dividend will be very, very valuable as a source of protection for the equity in a world starved for yield. I believe the stock will trade back under a 5% yield and could see it rallying to $35, where all the fears were first voiced that the dividend and the pension woes would compromise things.

Randall Stephenson, the CEO, is very aggressive; remember, he did the Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) iPhone deal sight unseen, and that could produce still more market-share gains. The man is not to be underestimated. My target price will be too low if Sprint (S - commentary - Cramer's Take) fails; AT&T and Verizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take) would have a field day splitting up the country. Its U-Verse TV gambit is working out well, too.

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Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company's dividend seems to be very much in doubt, and CEO Ken Lewis has truly bet the company on a turn in housing for 2009. I believe housing will turn, but not before I see much more pain for shareholders, as this company has so much exposure to the consumer -- which truly worries me -- although I like the Merrill acquisition very much. I prefer JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) in the Dow as a way to play any stabilization in banks.

When TARP was first proposed, when you could sell whole loans to the federal government, this stock took off, deservedly so. Now its bad loans could swamp the equity. The stock is telegraphing a rough road ahead. But by year-end, with real estate bottoming and house-price depreciation stopping - remember, I am saying that we could get a bottom in housing by June 30 -- and with aggressive staff cuts at Merrill Lynch and an improvement in the servicing business it got at Countrywide, you could see a post-dividend-cut rally to $18.

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