Of course that's a huge positive.

The other imponderable is unemployment. We are blessed with a new president who has an understanding of economics and recognizes that there is an "all bets are off" level of unemployment -- a 10% job loss -- that would render many of my predictions too bullish. I believe, though, that 10% can be taken off the table with aggressive stimulus and a big tax credit for housing (also part of my housing-bottom thesis) as well as a weak dollar, all of which I believe is in the cards but not in the stocks.

So I am using a positive prism in my bottom-up analysis, particularly because it looks as though we were more victimized by tax-loss selling and hedge fund closings than we had been in years. I believe that abatement more than offsets the belief from individuals that the market has become corrupt and that buying stocks is simply not investing anymore but pure gambling.

I am also factoring in the 3.6% average dividend yield of the 30 stocks, something that's of immense help when you are starting from such a low level -- the Dow lost 34% last year. And every bit of percentage matters.

This brings us to my total for 2009. My analysis brings me to a 13.1% gain for the Dow 30 in 2009 from the 2008 close and a 9.8% gain from Friday's close. Also, we are not piercing 10,000 with this analysis, so some would say this is not much to write about. I say, better than a sharp stick in the eye.

As a reminder, my predictions were based on the existing 30 components of the Dow. That includes General Motors (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take), whose equity has become irrelevant, and Alcoa (AA - commentary - Cramer's Take), another incredibly shrinking stock, which may also be replaced by a stronger company before the year is through.

With that, let's take a look at each of the stocks in the Dow 30.

Alcoa: This company requires a major turn in the world's economic fortunes, and I don't see it happening in time to save the company's dividend or maybe even its coveted position in the Dow. Its high debt load doesn't help.

There are two hopes here:

• China comes back, boosting aluminum demand.
• The company's equity shrinks to such a level that Alcoa is at last taken over.

The China boom, I believe, will actually be a reality, judging by the swing up in copper, the bottoming in the Baltic Freight rates and subsequent rally, a potential for interest rates to be cut in half, and a stimulus program that might be equal to 20% of the country's GDP. (I am buying a Chinese ETF in Action Alerts PLUS to take advantage of all of these positives in a market that was down 60% last year.)

With all of those goodies, you could see Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take) effect, a stock that rallies hard after a dividend cut, and a potential for the stock to rally to $15. If credit markets come back, it would not be surprising if we saw someone take a swing at Alcoa, but I am not counting on it, so $15 it is.