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RealMoney.com: Stuart Chaussee
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It's Not Just Rates Favoring Pharma, Med Plays

By Stuart Chaussee
RealMoney Contributor

4/23/2004 11:18 AM EDT
 
 Pharmaceuticals/Medical Supplies BULLISH
  • They tend to fare well as interest rates rise.
  • These companies also offer above-average dividend yields.
  • Classic turnaround value plays abound here.

It's no mystery that pharmaceutical stocks tend to do better in a rising interest rate environment. TheStreet.com Staff Reporter Gregg Greenberg gave details of the outperformance in his article, "The Case for Drug Stocks." One extreme example of outperformance he cited was in 1994, "when the Fed aggressively raised overnight lending rates from 3% to 6% in about a year's time. During that period the pharma index rose over 25% compared to a mere 2% gain for the S&P 500." Few economists, I imagine, would make a case that the Fed will raise rates aggressively over the coming year, but most now predict rates rising at some point in 2004.

Whether or not interest rates rise significantly from here will little affect my attraction to both large-cap drug and medical-supply stocks. As a value investor, both of these industries appeal to me. They offer above-average dividend yields and compelling valuations. I also like the fact that these industries have been unloved for many years. And, most of the stocks I'll highlight today have missed out on the nice rebound off the bear market lows in October 2002. It looks like these two industries are classic turnaround value plays.

I ran a filter of 8,000 stocks using Value Line's Professional 3.0 Software to zero in on quality companies in the drug and medical-supply industries. The following criteria were used to come up with my short list of 11 stocks:

  • financial strength rating B++ or better
  • dividend yield at or above the S&P 500's 1.6% yield
  • safety rank of 3 or lower (a rank of 1 indicates highest safety)
  • beta of 1.2 or less

The stock screen filtered through several hundred companies in these industries and spit out a beautiful list of 11 candidates, which I rounded down to 10 quality dividend plays -- six in the drug industry and four in medical supplies. Abbott Laboratories (ABT - commentary - Cramer's Take), Baxter International (BAX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Mentor (MNT - commentary - Cramer's Take) make up the medical supply plays; the rest are drug stocks.


Drug and Medical-Supplies Candidates
A stock screen helped produce this list of 10 quality dividend plays
Stock/Symbol Price Safety rank Financial strength Yield Forward P/E Long-term debt-to-equity Dividend payout ratio Projected EPS 3-5 year annual growth Beta Technical picture
Abbott Labs (ABT:NYSE) $43.0 1 A++ 2.4 16 40% 44 9.5 0.8 Rising trend
Baxter (BAX:NYSE) 33.3 2 A+ 1.7 17 149 29 7 0.6 Rising trend
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY:NYSE) 24.4 3 A 4.6 16 70 106 0.5 1.05 Support
Eli Lilly (LLY:NYSE) 74.0 2 A++ 1.9 22 53 49 8.5 0.8 Rising trend
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK:NYSE) 42.0 1 A+ 5 13 50 57 9 0.8 Beginning of rising trend?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) 53.7 1 A++ 1.8 16 9 35 13 0.7 Beginning of rising trend?
Mentor (MNT:NYSE) 32.3 3 B++ 1.9 24 68 44 13.5 0.8 Extended
Merck (MRK:NYSE) 46.0 1 A++ 3.2 14 27 45 2.5 0.85 Support
Pfizer (PFE:NYSE) 36.5 1 A++ 1.8 16 16 33 15 0.85 Rising trend
Wyeth (WYE:NYSE) 40.0 2 A+ 2.3 14 92 41 10.5 0.85 Beginning of rising trend?
Source: Value Line, Yahoo! Finance, Stuart Chaussee

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At time of publication, Chaussee and/or his clients were long Abbott Laboratories, Baxter International, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Pfizer and Wyeth, although holdings can change at any time.

Stuart Chaussee is a registered investment adviser specializing in dividend-paying, blue-chip stocks. He is also the author of three investment books, including Advanced Portfolio Management: Strategies for the Affluent. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Chaussee cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your feedback and invites you to send it to stuart.chaussee@thestreet.com.

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