The Opportunity Cost of Tech Obsession By James J. Cramer 4/24/01 8:09 AM ET

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Knucklehead! How many times have I pulled up at the pump, noticed that the price of gasoline has barely dropped, and then realized that the price of crude has fallen precipitously. In almost every case, that was the clarion call to get long some Chevron (CHV:NYSE - news - boards) or some Texaco (TX:NYSE - news - boards). But did I do it? Nah. I spent all my time trying to figure out whether it was the bottom in tech.

Lots of times we forget that there is an opportunity cost, a big opportunity cost, to spending all of your time trying to divine a bottom in Lucent (LU:NYSE - news - boards) or Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news - boards) or Sun Micro (SUNW:Nasdaq - news - boards). You don't have an unlimited amount of time on your hands. You can't stare at a group all day and research that group endlessly without a cost, especially if the answer remains illusory in tech.

You have to force yourself to find bull markets elsewhere. You have to open your eyes to other situations. Oil stocks, most of which are near their 52-week highs, made so much sense here, yet I didn't even get to listen to most of the conference calls, let alone study the quarterlies. There just wasn't enough time.

Don't I know it. Last week while in the Arizona desert, I was astonished to see D.R. Horton (DHI:NYSE - news - boards) and M/I Schottenstein Homes (MHO:NYSE - news - boards) developments everywhere, including a few places where our horses wished they weren't! I didn't know how integral to the boom in Arizona these companies are. They are making money hand over fist out there.

Again, had I been less focused on tech, I might have expanded my homebuilding focus beyond Toll Brothers (TOL:NYSE - news - boards) and Lennar (LEN:NYSE - news - boards), the two I know best. I just didn't have the time to do so. In both cases, I am now confident that I am too late. It is certainly too late to own the homebuilders, as they are strictly early-cycle stocks and we are much further along than that. They have had their move. The oils? Well, who doesn't know by now that they had great quarters?

I know second-guessing doesn't make you any money and causes you a lot of angst. But I put the blame for these misses on the obsession that I and so many others have had with tech. We are blind to other, easier opportunities, because we recognize the way that PMC-Sierra (PMCS:Nasdaq - news - boards) can double overnight. That's terrific. However, it came from a level that, had you round-tripped, you would have disappointed yourself or your shareholders.

So, open your eyes to other ideas. Don't just fixate on what was once great. You are liable to miss the layup and the three-pointer that way.

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