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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Watching for a Breakout in an Ag Fund

By Deron Wagner
9/11/2009 4:13 PM EDT
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Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO - commentary - Trade Now), an ETF composed of stocks related in some manner to the agriculture industry, has been consolidating in a tight range, near its recent highs, for the past six weeks. With the 20- and 50-day moving averages providing support below, MOO could be poised to break out in the near future. Take a look:

 
Market Vectors Agribusiness (MOO) -- Daily
Source: TradeStation


Ironically, PowerShares Agriculture Fund (DBA - commentary - Trade Now) recently broke down below a major level of support and is now bouncing into new resistance of that prior support level. Unlike MOO, which is composed of individual stocks pertaining to agriculture, the portfolio of DBA consists exclusively of agricultural commodity futures contracts (such as corn, wheat and soybeans). The bearish pattern of DBA is shown below:

PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) -- Daily
Source: TradeStation


In my last column of two weeks ago, I pointed out three ETFs for potential buy entry. Since all of them have rallied above their trigger points for long entry, let's do a quick recap and update on each position.

As anticipated, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD - commentary - Trade Now) has followed through with an upside breakout above its long-term pennant formation. Furthermore, the pivotal breakout in spot gold futures above the $1,000 per ounce mark has enabled GLD to test its all-time. A convincing rally over the $100 area should have very bullish implications to the price of GLD, as there would be a complete lack of overhead supply to contend with. The weekly chart of GLD is shown below:

SPDR Gold (GLD) -- Weekly
Source: TradeStation


Market Vectors Steel (SLX - commentary - Trade Now) was another ETF I was monitoring for possible breakout above a tight band of price consolidation. That breakout happened on Sept. 10, thereby triggering the buy entry for SLX. An updated daily chart of SLX is shown below:

Market Vectors Steel (SLX) -- Daily
Source: TradeStation

Presently, SLX is trading about two points above the trigger price discussed in my last column. But if you missed the initial breakout entry, a pullback to just above its breakout level, around the $50 area, now presents an ideal entry point. In the current environment, buying the first pullback that follows a breakout is sometimes less risky than buying the actual breakout, as it reduces the odds of getting stuck in a "failed breakout."


Finally, I was looking for a breakout in the Oil Service HOLDR (OIH - commentary - Trade Now). Specifically, I said:

For this setup, I like the idea of buying an initial half position on a rally above the two-day high (approximately 108.60). The remaining shares could then be added on further price confirmation that OIH will hold its breakout this second time around. Consider adding the rest over the 111.70 area. Scaling into a position in this manner is a great way to take advantage of a potential opportunity, while still minimizing risk in an indecisive environment.

Since then, OIH has moved above both entry points. The rally above the second trigger of 111.70 just happened on today's (Sept. 11) open. As with SLX, a pullback to the breakout level could present a secondary entry into OIH, whose chart is shown below:

Oil Services HOLDR (OIH) -- Daily
Source: TradeStation







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At the time of publication, Wagner was long GDP.

Deron Wagner is the founder and head trader of Morpheus Trading Group. His daily focus is managing and trading the Morpheus Capital Hedge Fund, which he founded in April of 2004. He also teaches his trading methodology with The Wagner Daily, The MTG Stalk Sheet, and The Wagner Weekly newsletters.



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