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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Volume Oddities

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

6/26/2009 7:01 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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Statistically, Thursday's rally was pretty good, as breadth was quite positive. I could complain about volume, but quite frankly it was pretty much the kind of volume we've seen consistently in the market. What struck me as odd was the absolute numbers vs. what I saw in individual stocks.

The absolute numbers had New York Stock Exchange volume at 1.175 billion. Wednesday's volume was 1.1 billion and Tuesday's was 1.2 billion, so all three were pretty much in the same range. Yet when I posted the volume for individual stocks, the action early in the week stood out as being heavier.

For example, let's look at everybody's favorite stock, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Trade Now). Note the big-volume day, when the stock traded to the downside last week. Then volume tapered off while it consolidated. Then Monday's big down day had pretty good volume and the last three days, when the stock rallied, we see volume moving lower. Notice Thursday's volume relative to Tuesday and Wednesday. The big up day lacked volume.

Or let's look at the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH - commentary - Trade Now) exchange-traded fund. Oil had a great day Thursday and OIH rallied. But now look at the volume relative to earlier in the week. It is not dramatic. It is, however, curious. Why did we trade 15 million shares last week on a big down day and 12 million earlier this week but Thursday we barely scraped up at 10 million?

What a sharp contrast to a boring old drug stock like Eli Lilly (LLY - commentary - Trade Now). I don't even need to circle the volume on Lilly's chart from Thursday because it stands out like a sore thumb. In fact, so does the volume in early May when the stock last had a nice rally.

Yet, the funny thing is I do not hear folks loving on the drug names the way they love on the commodities. The only thing I can figure out is that folks are already long the commodity names so there isn't a whole lot of interest in getting even longer.

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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