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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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Eyeing Correction, But Market Keeps Rallying

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/12/2009 5:07 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Helene Meisler
 
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I keep looking at the screen and seeing the S&P 500 down 19.99 and I can't help but think it looks like a price tag and the bulls will think the market has gone on sale!

Isn't it amazing that what was down last week managed a (weak) rally Monday and what was strong managed to give up its gains? But all the attempts on the upside in Nasdaq didn't help the Semiconductor index, or SOX , recapture that uptrend line. And the ratio of the SOX to the Nasdaq also stayed down.

For the past three weeks I have been discussing a correction in the market. And it not only hasn't happened, the market has rallied. I keep waiting for the indicators to roll over but they don't. They come "this" close and then we rally again and they get saved.

But since late last week we have the market at a critical point. The McClellan Summation Index for Nasdaq, in which I use volume instead of the advance/decline line, stopped going up on Thursday. To stop going up is not the same as rolling over. Sometimes we stop going up and then restart again.

As of Tuesday morning, Nasdaq's McClellan Summation Index needs a net differential of at least +500 million shares (up volume minus down volume) to start up again. A negative reading in volume will result in this indicator rolling over.

I make a fuss over this because the tendency in the market is that as long as the McClellan Summation indexes are rising we tend to find market declines to be mild and they tend to find support when they come down. Once this intermediate-term indicator rolls over declines in the market tend to be harder and don't find as much support so quickly.

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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in any stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.



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