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RealMoney.com: Technical Analysis
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A Different Low

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor

7/21/2008 8:57 AM EDT
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There are a few differences between this recent low and the lows of last August, January and March. The first thought that comes to my mind is that this is the first time we've had a low where all stocks did not participate and many stocks tanked instead. We watched financials, the most beaten-down group, surge last week, while the overowned tech and commodity names plunged. That did not happen previously.

Also at those previous lows, we saw the small-caps, as measured by the Russell 2000, make a lower low; this time that did not occur. Nasdaq too did not make a lower low this time around, yet its oscillator did make a lower low.

The three previous lows also saw credit spreads widen and found us in need of being saved by some Fed action. That did not occur this time. This time, the Fed did nothing. This time it was earnings -- from a bank, no less -- that turned the tide. What did occur this time was not total market panic, but rather total panic in the bank stocks.

When the local news is advising you on how to put your money in the bank so that it is insured by the FDIC, you can understand where the bank panic came from. That was not the case at the previous lows. This time the public was not only fearful of their stock market holdings, but of their life savings as well.

Therefore, I'm not so sure this low will develop the same way the others did. It is my view that this low is more apt to be fits and starts and not quite so all-encompassing as the previous three lows I have referred to. This low was not so all-encompassing in all sectors, so how can we expect it to be all-encompassing on the upside as well?

As for the indicators, not much has changed since last week. The 30-day moving average of the advance/decline line remains oversold. The new lows have begun to shrink in a major way. We went from more than 1,300 new lows on Tuesday to 79 on Friday. Now that's contraction!

The McClellan Summation Index did curl back up for both Nasdaq and the NYSE late last week. I would not term either one out of the woods just yet, but I would note that despite the disaster in the horsemen on Friday and Nasdaq's more than 1% plunge, the net differential of upside volume minus downside volume on Friday for Nasdaq was a mere -380 million shares. A week ago, that news from Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) would have sent this particular indicator to a net negative of well over a billion shares.

We still have a parade of earnings ahead of us this week, as well as the usual post-expiration blues that we typically get in the market, so I'll stick with the view that we had a low and I expect us to be choppy with an upside bias. We will not be maximum overbought for about another week, so while we may get some downside, I don't expect it will reverse last week's rally just yet.

Overbought/Oversold Oscillators

For more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.








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At the time of publication, Meisler had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Helene Meisler writes a daily technical analysis column and TheStreet.com Top Stocks. For more information, click here. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback; click here to send her an email.




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