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RealMoney.com: Retail
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HAIN Has Potential

By Scott Rothbort
RealMoney Contributor

5/5/2008 12:25 PM EDT
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Hain Celestial Group (HAIN - commentary - Cramer's Take) stock is moving higher after the company reported an "as expected" quarter. The revenue miss was explained as being part of the company's SKU rationalization program, of which what I heard today has been successful. The company has been able to pass on its commodity cost increases in part to consumers while having to manage the balance of the cost increases through productivity and SKU reductions.

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What I see is a company that is not growing as fast as it did over the past two years, and, as a result, the stock has suffered. Once (and if) commodity costs plateau and the economy begins to pick up, however, Hain might recapture some of that accelerated growth. I like the company more here than when I sold it 20% higher. The company might be worthy of nibbling once again, but be patient before getting more aggressive.

Hain Celestial reported third-quarter 2008 EPS of 20 cents on a GAAP basis and 36 cents on an adjusted basis. Revenue was $264.6 million. While EPS was in line with analysts' estimates, the top-line number fell short. Management attributed the shortfall to about $5 million of product that was discontinued.

Margins rose by 20 basis points, to 30.7%. SG&A declined 150 basis points, to 18.4%, on the back of productivity and cost efficiencies. Volume growth is strong, and Hain is not seeing consumers trade down despite reports to the contrary. April sales were extremely strong.

Product growth:

  • Terra Chips was up 5%;
  • Arrowhead up 5%;
  • Earth's Best up 36%;
  • Hain brands up 14%;
  • Celestial Seasonings up 2%;
  • chicken business up 14%; and
  • Avalon/Alba (personal care) up 27%.
By location:
  • Canada was up 40%;
  • Europe up 20%; but
  • U.K. was down 8%.
Hain Celestial has passed several price increases -- over eight since 2005 and another implemented on May 3. These price increases are supported by Hain products. So far, the company has absorbed $40 million of commodity cost increases, of which $14 million was passed on in price increases and $11 million was offset by productivity. The company believes that commodities are "tapped out" and will not go up much further, but it also has been wrong about that in the past.

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At the time of publication, Rothbort had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele. He also is the founder and manager of the social networking educational Web site TheFinanceProfessor.com.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Term Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.




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