Does AIG Really Know What's Going On?

Paul Krugman writes in the New York Times that three things usually figure in a presidential campaign. The state of the economy, the approval (disapproval) rating of the incumbent and whether the electorate is undergoing an "eight-year itch" and is looking to naturally change directions. All three heavily favor Senator Obama.

The fly in the ointment, says Krugman, is the fight for the Democratic nomination that has divided the party along class and racial lines. Obama appears to be winning the race with a "deep but narrow base of African-Americans and highly educated whites."

Senator Clinton appeals to rural, white, older and lower-income voters, long the core constituency of the Democratic Party. Krugman feels Clinton's continued presence in the race will intensify this split and play to Senator McCain's advantage.

Enough with the serious stuff. We need to think big like Charles Ray Fuller of Fort Worth. He was arrested for trying to cash a check for $360 billion. Fuller told police he wants to start a record label, and his girlfriend's mother gave him the check to help the venture.

I'll be on Larry Kudlow's show tonight at 7 PM NY time. See you then.

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Vincent Farrell Jr. is a principal of Scotsman Capital Management. Prior to joining Scotsman in April 2005, Farrell was chairman of Victory Capital Management of Cleveland and chairman of Victory SBSF Capital Management in New York. He was a founding partner of Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell, which was acquired by KeyCorp in 1995. Vince held a variety of positions in his 23 years at SBSF, including chief investment officer, and he served as the portfolio manager on a number of the firm's largest client relationships. He is a regular guest on CNBC as well as other national print and broadcast media.

Prior to joining SBSF, Vince spent nine years at Smith Barney as a vice president, sales.

Vince graduated from Princeton University in 1969 and received his MBA from the Iona College Graduate School of Business in 1972.