Election Day Musings

Do the elections today really matter? First of all, no matter how local these elections might be, you have to go out and vote. To many people, these local elections determine the future of property taxes and education. These are not exactly small issues.

There are four major elections in the U.S. (five, if you count my buddy, Mike Dana, who is running for Millburn Township Committee and whose election-night-return soiree is at my house). Those major elections are in New Jersey, where the battle for Governor is hotly contested and very close between incumbent Jon Corzine (D) and challenger Chris Christie (R). An independent candidate, Chris Daggett is garnering enough votes to make this contest very uncertain. As an investor, I think this is the most important contest out there as New Jersey has a major consumer base and ties to Wall Street.

The next two races are not close: The mayoral race in New York City is likely to be won by incumbent Mike Bloomberg, and the Virginia governorship contest sees challenger Robert McConnell (R) with a commanding lead to succeed incumbent R. Creigh Deeds (D). The most interesting race in upstate New York is one to replace a departing member of the House. The republican candidate stepped down so that conservative and now conservative/republican candidate Doug Hoffman would challenge democrat Bill Owens one on one. Hoffman leads in the polls.

While very local, these elections could set the table for 2010 midterm elections. For those of you new to the site, as a result of the 2002 midterm election (which was greatly influenced by our own Jim Cramer and his then on-air partner Larry Kudlow), significant investor-friendly tax policy was put into law. These are set to sunset in 2011. Thus, while this year's election might seem trivial, it could possibly set the stage for an echo voter rebellion against the current legislators in power come 2010. No matter what, it will be interesting as we head into an uncertain economy and financial markets in 2010.

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At the time of publication, Rothbort had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele. He also is the founder and manager of the social networking educational Web site TheFinanceProfessor.com.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Term Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.