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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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It's Not the Worst Case, But...

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

10/29/2009 8:46 AM EDT
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You know when you have gotten too negative? When you pick up the paper and the lead story is "Slump Sinks Visa Program," and you say, "That's it! I can't take it ... Visa was the one bright spot in my portfolio, and now they've taken that away!"

Then you read the story and you know it is not about bank fee rates or credit card usage or congressional bashing for once, but about a skilled workers program. It has nothing to do with the red-hot Visa (V - commentary - Trade Now) at all.

But that's what happens after you have had your head bashed in for so many days. It is also what happens when you fall prey to believing that all that is ever going to happen is the worst case, as I felt when I read the Goldman Sachs GDP forecast yesterday, the one that said this number today would be wretched.

That turns out to have been as wrong as my read of the Visa situation.

I still don't like this market. We can have an end-of-the-month snapback aided by the oversold condition, but what people liked in this GDP report is all about stabilizing (albeit at lower levels), not about growing the economy, and the claims numbers bears that out.

Yes, had you bought at the bottom yesterday, you are looking good.

But if you bought at Dow 10,000, I think you are thanking your lucky stars at a chance to get back to even, as slim as that can be, before the lead story in the paper is a story about bashing Visa the company, not the program.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Visa and Goldman Sachs.


Special note from Jim: You can learn my time-tested ways to trade smart, even in this market. All my latest thinking is in my brand-new book, Getting Back to Even, which I'll send to you as part of a special promotion when you sign up for my Action Alerts PLUS service for a limited time. So if you sign up now, you'll get to see how I'm playing these stocks in my portfolio today, plus, I'll teach you how you can play these stocks to help your portfolio get back to even.

Cramer's Upcoming Book Signings

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 7 p.m. Barnes & Noble, Manhattan (33 East 17th St.)





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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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