Goldman Was Made for These Times

What's the bear case on Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) again? Does anyone remember it? Was it bad revenue? Nope. Was it credit losses? Uh-uh. Maybe home equity loan issues? Doesn't have any. Credit cards? Doesn't issue them. Hmmm, maybe it was commercial real estate. For all we know, it is short the stuff.

Uh oh, maybe there isn't a bear case. Maybe the stock was down because the market expected some analysts to hammer it, like Meredith "Splash" Whitney, who hasn't come out from the bear's den after the quarter, perhaps because the quarter had no flies on it.

You have to recognize that if there were a financial created for this environment, it would have to have no exposure to commercial real estate, to residential real estate including foreclosures and home equity loans, to credit cards and fees (going down soon because of the government) to structured investment vehicles. Only Goldman Sachs has that. It is almost ridiculous to compare it to any other financial. It is the only one that most cautious managers can own.

In fact, with few exceptions, it might pay to short the vast majority of financials vs. being long Goldman, at least until it trades well north of $200. Bear cases abound with this group, but not with this stock. And given that the window for insider selling is now open, the strength of the stock should put pause to those who are anxious to go against a bank that's rallying in a BB&T (BBT - commentary - Trade Now)-derived decline.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long GS.

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