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RealMoney.com: Jim Cramer Blog
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Not a Fulcrum Movement

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist

8/26/2009 1:52 PM EDT
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There's a pall being cast over this market. I don't know if it is the pall of Doug Kass -- no, I am not kidding as a dozen hedge fund managers have hit me with his piece -- or whether it is a recognition that we've gone as high as we can go without new information.

 
In the latter theory the big durable good numbers and existing-home numbers are "in" the stock market. I say that because some of my hardest-hit names are directly linked to a stronger economy -- 3M (MMM - commentary - Trade Now), Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now), Deere (DE - commentary - Trade Now), Fluor (FLR - commentary - Trade Now) and General Electric (GE - commentary - Trade Now) -- while the recession stocks are rocking: Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Trade Now), Celgene (CELG - commentary - Trade Now), General Mills (GIS - commentary - Trade Now), Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Trade Now), Coca-Cola (KO - commentary - Trade Now) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT - commentary - Trade Now). Worse, Dollar Tree (DLTR - commentary - Trade Now) and Family Dollar (FDO - commentary - Trade Now) are on the move.

Could it be a rotation or could it be bigger than that? Could people be too optimistic and we are about to get slammed again by weaker data?

Many people are going to dislike my answer but I think it is another rotation, nothing more, and I don't think this is a fulcrum moment. That's exactly what Doug Kass is calling for -- something that could be really ugly.

I just don't see it because the data really is pretty good. The longs are "crowded" like the banks, which were written up by Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Trade Now) as being a concentrated holding by hedge funds -- reminiscent (I blanche) of the piece last year where it was clear that the hedge funds were clustered in the rails, National Oilwell Varco (NOV - commentary - Trade Now) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Trade Now).

Again, though, maybe stocks like Citigroup (C - commentary - Trade Now) and Goldman are ahead of themselves. Maybe the financial group is too frothy -- witness the final reversals in Fannie (FNM - commentary - Trade Now) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Trade Now) mentioned here earlier as perhaps being worthless.

But I reach the same conclusion again: I don't see anything big happening. Would I buy here? I am actually a seller of some stuff for ActionAlertsPLUS. Just normal selling though.

I am simply trying to say that between money coming in and better earnings vs. too much optimism and deficit issues, I see a push for awhile.

Nothing more.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs, General Electric, Pepsi, Abbott Laboratories and Procter & Gamble.


Doug Kass famously called the stock market bottom in March. Now he's calling a top. Do you agree?

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Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

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