The Senate Won't Pass This Onerous Health Bill

Everyone's fretting about the new tax brackets -- or at least everyone who's rich or who lives in a high-tax state -- over the health care plan coming out of Congress. Everyone thinks that Nancy Pelosi can never be defeated. She is a juggernaut. More powerful than a speeding bullet. Etc.

But the Senate could be a different story. Remember Pelosi and co. need 60 votes, and there are exactly 60 Democrats. There are two publicly quoted Democratic senators who are not even the most likely biggest objectors -- Sen. Ben Nelson from Nebraska and Sen. Evan Bayh from Indiana.

Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat from New Mexico who sits on the Finance Committee, says, "I don't think it is going anywhere in the Senate." He's a key vote. There are two Democrats from Arkansas who are both up in 2010; both are questionable supporters of the bill.

I count six to eight Democrats in the Senate who are against this socialization of medicine at the expense of the rich. That's all you need to stop it.

I think the Senate will pass something on health care, but it will not contain the massive tax increases. And that's why the market can rally in the face of what would be horrible news for the class that is the big buyer of stocks.

Oh, and just to be sure, the Blue Dog Democrats may block this piece of legislation in the House. This health care reform could very well be stillborn.

Random musings: I'm watching Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now) and 3M (MMM - commentary - Trade Now), which are either breaking free from strikes (MMM) or have gigantic buy interest in the above strike (CAT). Remember, the CAT chatter from Credit Suisse yesterday was most damaging, and people are yawning. ... Disney (DIS - commentary - Trade Now) seems like a play on lower gasoline prices. It has ramped. ... Colgate (CL - commentary - Trade Now) remains the standout in the soft-goods game, but Johnson & Johnson (JNJ - commentary - Trade Now) is closing in...

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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