QCOM Is the Tell

If I were a bear, I would be trying -- right here, right now -- to keep Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now), Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now), Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now) and Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Trade Now) down ... especially Qualcomm. I'd try to make it clear that the rotation out of tech and into drugs and foods is happening in earnest.

You see, we have an odd day. The few times we have seen the drug stocks going up, it has always come out of the hide of tech, banks and oil. It's hard to drive oil down, and the banks are led by Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Trade Now), which is on fire. That leaves tech.

I know some people believe tech is rolling over. I think tech is resting. We have had remarkable moves in tech, remarkable, and you could argue that tech has gotten ahead of itself.

Which brings me back to Qualcomm. Here is a stock, when they preannounced this morning, was trading up as much as 78 cents. Then the moment the market opened, longs and shorts made a beeline to the bids, knocking the stock all the way back about 75 cents.

Now, let's go further. If this stock finishes down, you know that traders will say, "Wait a second, all of the good news is in these stocks and none of the bad news, and many bears are passing around data that shows all is slowing down in tech."

I am not seeing that. Remember where I come down: We are at the beginning of a gigantic product cycle, the wireless Internet, and the rules are very clear on what you do with these stocks -- you buy them when they go down because the secular trend is just too positive.

At the heart of all of these handheld gizmos is Qualcomm.

That's why QCOM is the key to today's trading. Any successful attempt to make this stock close down will clearly signify to others that the move is pretty much over for now.

Watch this stock: It will tell you what's ahead for the near-term future of the Nasdaq.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Qualcomm.

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