Joy Global Wears a Conservative Suit

Just as I thought: Joy Global (JOYG - commentary - Trade Now) is being cautious. There's a ton of room to the upside on this one, although I fear people may have been taking it up all day not just because of the positive Street comments but because people knew I would have Mike Sutherlin on my show.

The analysts on the conference call figured Sutherlin was low-balling. but if you read between the lines of the call and my interview tonight, here is what you heard:

1. It is hard to get worse than the U.S. coal market is right now as you have to go back to the 1950s to find such a bad time.

2. China is a secular bull market in coal as it switches from dangerous small mines to mega-mines that use Joy Global's equipment.

3. He is presuming that all canceled or deferred orders stay canceled or deferred, but that is being way too conservative.

In general, Sutherlin has always been understated. The stock has doubled since I had him on last but that's when commodities were in freefall. He made it clear tonight that if commodities stay this strong, he will be too low in his estimates.

They will and he's too low. This and Boeing (BA - commentary - Trade Now) are good places to go on weakness tomorrow that might come from an employment number that trips up the bulls as neither is about a short-term labor number.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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Know What You Own: Other farm and construction machinery companies that may interest investors include Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Trade Now), Deere & Co. (DE - commentary - Trade Now), Hitachi (HIT - commentary - Trade Now), CNH Global (CNH - commentary - Trade Now) and AGCO (AGCO - commentary - Trade Now). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit TheStreet.com's Investing A-to-Z section.

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