The Troika Tips Over

The troika's rolling over today. The bank stocks are pulling back on a tempering of bank earnings by Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) who said March is not so hot.

We also got the news that I most feared: returning TARP is not a priority for the government until the whole system, the whole country, is doing better. That means no real competitive advantage coming for those who give it back early. That had been the driver of much of the recent phase of the rally.

Oil? It's obvious that this run needs a round of profit-taking in the crude, not necessarily the companies. I see crude hanging at $50 for a bit, give or take $5. This is a momentum-driven market and when something stops going up, it comes down. However, it doesn't stay there and that's the fear with crude that is putting a lid on the stocks.

Tech? After this run, it is without a doubt that this group, with a couple more days like this, would simply break the land-speed record for a rally. The entire tech complex is rallying because inventories are low at the component level.

That means you can only go so far. We didn't hear from Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take), Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take) that things are better than expected. Without that, can we really go much higher from here other than in a short squeeze?

The troika's led us this far. The troika rests. The troika recharges.

The troika's still the place to be.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long JPMorgan and Cisco.

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