Why Be Positive?

We used to call this "getting where it has to go." We need to wash out all of the people who said that we would not take out levels that are now artificial because many of the components in the averages have been breached gigantically.

The Nov. 21 lows were extreme and seemed chimerical. You couldn't get in. You simply were unable to get in unless you are below the bid when the bids disappeared courtesy of the futures.

To me, the notion of them "holding" is also fanciful in that you will need to pick stocks that haven't been hurt by the downturn for a snapback/short squeeze. (See an idea for such a play from James Altucher in the Columnist Conversation.)

What's the point of buying at all? There's really no reason unless you think that the stocks that have now reached and breached levels where business has stabilized are worth doing if you have a longer-term view.

If you do not have a longer-term view, the answer to whether you should buy is "not yet," and the answer to whether you should sell is "yes, on any lift."

Why bother to be so negative? Because there has been and is no point to being positive. It is too costly.

What should be sold? To put it simply, "the bad ones." Ones like Eastman Kodak (EK - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Macy's (M - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Deere (DE - commentary - Cramer's Take). I pick on all of these because they do have one common theme: debt. They are all going to have problems because of debt. Kodak and Macy's owe too much. Deere's customers, as we learned today from Goldman Sachs, may not be able to afford tractors.

What can work? I simply believe the short-term oil figures are deeply influenced by issues related to expiration. The OPEC cuts and the drilling cuts -- as we are hearing from Transocean's (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take) morning earnings conference call (thanks Dan Fitzpatrick for pointing this one out) -- are telling me that the far out years, call it 2012, are going to bring higher prices. That's why I am buying Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take).

One listen to RIG's call, where they are saying that deepwater out years are stronger than they thought -- hence the buyback -- is to recognize that oil might be reaching a bottom and it makes sense to buy those that replace oil.

That said, I am not leaving all that much room for hope right now.

It just seems misplaced, as all that can happen is a short-squeeze rally.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron.

ALL JIM CRAMER BLOG ENTRIES | POST A COMMENT | READ COMMENTS  

---

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. To order Cramer's newest book -- "Jim Cramer's Stay Mad for Life: Get Rich, Stay Rich (Make Your Kids Even Richer)," click here. Click here to order "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get "You Got Screwed!" and click here for Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback and invites you to send comments by clicking here.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon.com purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.