China's the Driver

How long before we start feeling the positive effect of a market that is up 13% and is the biggest user of commodities? How long do we think oil can stay down (or copper or steel) when the stock market of China, the growth engine, is no longer sputtering and has ample room to run?

As people sell down BP (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Conoco (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take), they simply must believe that the Chinese stimulus plan is already a failure. Anyone on the Mattel (MAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) conference call -- talk about a company with Chinese insight -- certainly thinks so. The description of China from reports like Mattel is one of Cormac McCarthy's The Road-like devastation.

I am not buying it.

I think the reason the Baltic Freight Index yesterday convincingly took out 1000 is all China. Same with the inability of copper to go below $1.50 and stay there.

It is also the reason I think that BP is wrong in its analysis this morning that oil will stay weak.

This market is presaging a big rebound for everything from steel and iron ore (Nucor (NUE - commentary - Cramer's Take), Rio (RTP - commentary - Cramer's Take)) to basics telecommunications (Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take), although again, I expect a weak quarter).

I think it is being ignored in part because it is not in the gloom scenario that now dominates, and also because our man at Treasury, Tim Geithner, bashed the government behind the only conceivable 2009 turn of any large economy in the world.

Random musings: Stop being misled by the fictions of credit default swaps and read Eric Oberg's eye-opener right now.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long BP, Cisco and ConocoPhillips.

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