In This Market, Trust Can Kill Your Portfolio

Talk about a "trust no one" era. Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) had been adamant that it had no use or need for the government's money. Its instant investment in China of much of our money made that point loud and clear. Why did we waste it on them? Why did we force them to take it?

Could we have been reassured more times that Steve Jobs was OK? That we were dead wrong to question it? That Joe Nocera, who wrote a prescient article about health and Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Jobs had been singled out by Jobs for the audacity of even questioning the man who is so much of Apple that we are frightened to even contemplate the world without him?

But we were asked to trust, and in return the trust was not rewarded. Bank of America has been in trouble for a month now, even though the company exuded confidence. The stock's been a killer.

Apple's been better. In fact, Apple may be better, in that it has a great host of products and a fan base. But Apple has a 16 P/E, and in this newfound world, that may not be justified without him!

To me, the lesson once again is that this is a brutal, horrible market where reassurances just don't mean much. You either believe in Apple -- with all of the negative rumors and all, accepting that Jobs might be gone -- or you don't buy it. You either believe that the stock of Bank of America is worth owning -- regardless of the reassurances, because it is a great national franchise that can come back -- or you skip it.

But belief in denials has been one of the costliest investment strategies of the era. Last night's announcements repudiating what could be the biggest denials of the moment, coming on the heels of the Lehman and Bear denials and the "Fannie (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take) fundamentals are sound" and the Bob Steel "we're OK" denial that I got suckered into, tell us we are at fault for believing. They are just doing what comes naturally.

Random musings: That GPM piece of paper turned out to be a payer, and a nice one, despite all of the problems. ... Google's (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) not red-hot? No kidding! ... If you believe in the refiner story, that it is getting better, obviously Valero (VLO - commentary - Cramer's Take) is the best play. But don't forget Marathon (MRO - commentary - Cramer's Take), which is reviewing its options to split in two, and Conoco (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take), which at 7 times earnings represents the cheapest major and has major refining operations.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long ConocoPhillips.

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