So 2009 starts with excruciating decisions right out of the box. We are more overbought than we have been in ages, yet we have tons of bears waiting to be converted. We haven't seen an ounce of good news, but you can't keep the cyclical down -- particularly the oils, but also the infrastructure plays. The techs want to rally -- witness the Nasdaq futures up to their old tricks -- but other than an allegedly clean bill of health from Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), some decent gallop from Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) (heaven knows why except for Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) share loss, certainly not ad pickup) and a bounce from Research In Motion (RIMM - commentary - Cramer's Take), we have nothing to hang our hats on. I recommended Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) last night on "Mad Money" because it is so obvious that tech wants to go higher, but that was the only tech that I felt good enough to push because the company has some visibility.
Meanwhile, the Homebuilders Index (HGX) looks like it is breaking out, and as for whom the Toll (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) bells, it is ringing in the ears of the bears with that move back to $22. I am getting comfort from smart guys that the Bank Index (BKX) isn't as important as I make it -- including from my No. 1 guy, Matt Horween, or Helene Meisler, my fave tech person -- because there are too many zombies in it. Matt prefers preferreds, at least as a tell for the financials, and they are roaring.
So, my thesis: China. China is going to be leading us out of this. We see it in the right-out-of-the-chute move there beginning with the new year -- I even paid up for a China ETF yesterday for Action Alerts PLUS -- see that product for the particulars. We see it with rate cuts and with off-the-chart stimulus. The moves in Asia are stunning, particularly when you consider that the gadget market is pretty moribund.
Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC.
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