Oil Service Stocks Refuse to Bottom

The silence of the analysts on these oil service companies is amazing. Collectively, they won't make the cuts that we need to cause a bottom, and to buy them before they do is to risk really getting clubbed.

I feel this way because you don't get a bottom in these kinds of stocks, in the Halliburtons (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and the Nabors Industries (NBR - commentary - Cramer's Take), without numbers being cut so low that they can be beaten. That sure isn't the case with these. Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) and National Oilwell Varco (NOV - commentary - Cramer's Take) numbers for 2009 are clearly too high, even if oil goes back to the $50s. We know this because we are having shut-ins and declines in natural gas that makes $3 natural gas not worth drilling for.

Meanwhile, the manipulation in Exxon Mobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) is incredible -- once again, a combination of ETF buying and options buying -- and it is just nuts.

If anything, I don't want to buy the drillers, but I don't mind buying the integrateds. They are beaten up and may represent some real value away from Exxon simply because they have great cash flow and low multiples.

We know, for example, that the financials are going down because numbers are too high. I think that when the analysts feel that the run is over, they will come out and blast oil service numbers, and you can go right back and buy them then, a la National Semiconductor (NSM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Next week, we will see some first-class manipulation in the Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH - commentary - Cramer's Take) as we always do in expiration week. I think the upside will be limited from here, even as the groupthink hedge funds have decided all together to short General Mills (GIS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and buy Transocean (RIG - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Random musings: Eastman Kodak (EK - commentary - Cramer's Take) is getting killed on its printer initiative. I don't see anything good happening there. Nothing.... SunTrust (STI - commentary - Cramer's Take)? I guess we'll find out tomorrow why people are selling it today. Typical.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long General Mills.

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