Bottom in Oil Is Crucial

Does the market not want to go down? Are we in a permanent up-200-down-200 world, with the error to the upside?

I think so. I think that we are seeing the end of the hedge fund selling, which is why it's easy for agriculture to rally on production cuts and Foster-Wheeler (FWLT - commentary - Cramer's Take) is up again. Amazing. Nothing new there, but the buyback got aggressive in the 20s, so for once a company did the right thing with the buyback.

But you know what is crucial to this rally? The bottom in oil. That's what Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) was telegraphing with this run. That's why you can see the Oil Services HOLDRS (OIH - commentary - Cramer's Take) ramping and Conoco (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take) making its move.

More important than that, though, is that a bottom in oil means a deep recession is not going to happen. It is why the oil inventories don't matter to me. Exxon's right -- the group's a macro call, not an inventory call. I am not put off by the trading in the commodity; the bounce off of $40, I believe, will hold.

Obama's infrastructure plan, money-printing by the Fed and the Chinese stimulus package are going to work, according to this market. You will see the rails come back off of these changes and, if there is one thing that is wrong, you will see gold (GLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) rally.

The Baltic Freight Index is the signal of the turn here -- it is significant and it has bottomed. I still like Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Frontline (FRO - commentary - Cramer's Take), with its shaved dividend, may be just fine, too.

Random musings: The cheapest is Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM - commentary - Cramer's Take); the most one for one way is GLD... You simply have to believe that no one has as good a call on residential real estate as Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), and that means more stability.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long FWLT.

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