The Bullish Thesis Depends on Jobs

You see the thesis developing. Mortgage rates are coming down, gasoline is plummeting in price, heating oil and natural gas prices are cascading, refinances are soaring. You put it all together, and you think to yourself, here comes the bottom in the Retail HOLDRs (RTH - commentary - Cramer's Take), here's the bottom in Macy's (M - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Kohl's (KSS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Home Depot (HD - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Lowe's (LOW - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Sears (SHLD - commentary - Cramer's Take) has made it; lets buy bebe stores (BEBE - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF - commentary - Cramer's Take) and most certainly Jones Apparel (JNY - commentary - Cramer's Take), VF Corp. (VFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), Tiffany (TIF - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Urban Outfitters (URBN - commentary - Cramer's Take).

Let's take some Toll Brothers (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and KB Homes (KBH - commentary - Cramer's Take), and why not some Lennar (LEN - commentary - Cramer's Take) and D.R. Horton (DHI - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

Let's grab some Yum! (YUM - commentary - Cramer's Take), Panera (PNRA - commentary - Cramer's Take), Darden (DRI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Chipotle (CMG - commentary - Cramer's Take) (remember that one?). Maybe even some heavy duty ones: Black & Decker (BDK - commentary - Cramer's Take), Fortune Brands (FO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and the dreaded twosome, Masco (MAS - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ethan Allen (ETH - commentary - Cramer's Take) because the dividends feel, uh, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take)-like.

The thesis is right if employment doesn't nose dive, because you can look through the valley of the shadow of bad earnings knowing that year over year we will be better off.

The thesis will just lead to more heartbreak if employment skyrockets.

So, here's what it all comes down to: President-Elect Obama. If he can find ways to put people to work -- perhaps with a $10,000 tax credit per hire? -- then we can look through even the horrible employment reports coming.

Otherwise, just sell today, because you won't be able to take tomorrow's pain.

Random musings: Is Senator Richard Shelby (R., Ala.) just shilling for the foreign-car makers with plants in his state? This guy is like the senator from Toyota for heaven's sake...

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Freeport-McMoRan and VF Corp.

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